Who will be the 47th president of the United States? Americans vote on Tuesday, November 5, to decide whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the future tenant of the White House. But it is unlikely that the ballot boxes will reveal the winner immediately, as the vote is so uncertain.
The voting methods and the high risk of contesting the results could prolong the wait for several days, as during the last presidential election in 2020. The name of the winner was only revealed on November 7, four days after the election. Facing Joe Biden, Donald Trump declared himself the winner and denounced alleged irregularities in the electoral process. This refusal to admit defeat led to the deadly attack on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
Franceinfo explains to you why we will surely have to wait to find out who will succeed Joe Biden.
Because counting mail-in and early votes takes time
Citizens have several methods to elect their future president, including postal voting. The latter has existed since the Civil War (1861-1865). At the time, it allowed soldiers who fought far from home to be able to vote, recalls National Geographic. Subsequently, this process was extended to all American states, under various conditions. Today, seven states – Oregon, Utah, California, Washington State, Colorado, Nevada and Hawaii – have completely replaced physical voting with postal voting, details the site dedicated to elections from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
This remote voting is gaining ground. During the last presidential election, more than 43% of voters voted by mail, in particular due to the Covid-19 pandemic, recalls the AP agency. The other voters had chosen almost equally to vote in advance or in person.
However, the counting of early or postal votes takes longer than that of physical votes. “We must verify the identity of the person, ensure that they are registered on the electoral lists”explains Steven Ekovich, professor of political science at the American University of Paris. In some states, verification includes matching with a signature or photo ID, the magazine specifies. Time.
Especially since this November 5, Americans are also voting for local elected officials, judges, sheriffs, referendums… “I myself voted early in California, and my ballot was five or six pages long! It takes time to collect all these results”continues Steven Ekovich. This year, the first mail-in ballots began being mailed on September 6. In some states, they can be counted in advance, but others prohibit any counting before Election Day. This is the case of Wisconsin, a pivotal state lost by the Democrats in 2016 and regained in 2020. This rule can lead to considerable delays before the results are announced.
For this election, “there were also several appeals to find out whether a ballot sent before November 5, but received after the fateful day, could be valid”continues Steven Ekovich. Each State is free to decide, since “the electoral process is decentralized”insists the specialist. In any case, the States will have until December 11 to certify their results, six days before the electoral college meets, recalls MSNBC.
Because appeals are expected in the event of close results, particularly in “swing states”
As in 2020, the presidential election could be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a handful of particularly contested states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. However, the battle to win these territories has already started in the courts. In April, the Republican Party launched “a historic program for electoral integrity”mobilizing 100,000 people, he described
In Georgia, the Republicans tried, without success, to impose on electoral workers a manual counting of the ballots, in order to slow down the process and block the certification of the results in the event of defeat, explains the Reuters agency. In Arizona, the federal Supreme Court reinstated a local election law requiring proof of American citizenship to register to vote, in response to a request from conservatives, adds Reuters. In Pennsylvania, the State Supreme Court refused Republicans' request to prevent voters from correcting errors (signature, missing information, etc.) on mail-in ballots, details CNN.
The Democratic Party and civil rights groups are also mobilized. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic National Committee supported an ultimately unsuccessful appeal to have undated mail-in ballots counted, Bloomberg reports. In Alabama, progressive organizations pursued a directive from Republican Secretary of State Wes Allen to bar the voting of more than 3,000 residents registered in a foreign national database, even though some of them may have been registered there by error.
These dozens of legal battles are likely to last beyond November 5, because there is no rule on the date on which the courts must rule, points out Bloomberg. Moreover, “other appeals are planned in key states in the event of close results”explains Robert R. Preuhs, professor of political science at Metropolitan State University in Denver. “If they do not necessarily lead to a change in the results, they could fuel distrust among supporters of the losing side, leading to demonstrations or political tensions.”
Because Donald Trump prepared to challenge a possible defeat
“That's the only way we're going to lose, because they're cheating.”the 78-year-old Republican said at a rally in Michigan on September 27. During the campaign, Donald Trump constantly asserted that if he lost, it would only be due to electoral fraud organized by the Democrats. Already in 2020, he had claimed, without evidence, that the increasing use of postal voting had led to fraud and his defeat. If the scenario repeats itself this year, “he will (…) do everything possible to reverse the results”predicted to AFP Donald Nieman, professor of political science at Binghamton University, in New York state.
To do this, the billionaire and his allies have developed in recent months a vast organization to contest the results. In addition to legal challenges filed across the country to pass election laws in their favor, Republicans mobilized thousands of volunteers to monitor the voting process on November 5. These numbers include 200,000 observers, election workers and legal experts, reports the Wall Street Journal. A conservative group also developed a site aimed at reporting fraud and allowing users to post and comment on “electoral irregularities”to sow doubt on the ballot. According to the same source, a network of conservative donors invested more than 140 million dollars (around 130 million euros) to support these operations.
This organization seems to be bearing fruit with the Republican electorate. A Public Religion Research Institute poll released October 16 shows that 19% of Republicans think that if Donald Trump lost, he should contest the results and seek to take power by any means possible.