Harris or Trump? Scenarios about the outcome of the presidential election

The race is open. Even shortly before the end of a turbulent election campaign, the outcome of the American presidential election remains in limbo. One reason for this: the complicated American electoral system. The race for the White House is won by whoever achieves a majority of votes in a sufficiently large number of states.

Five scenarios of how the American presidential election could turn out.

Scenario 1: “Madam President” leaves no question unanswered

The dream scenario of all Democrats: Kamala Harris not only wins the majority of votes in the politically contested states of the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin), but also wins in the swing states of the “Sun Belt”. The Sun Belt stretches from North Carolina through Georgia to Arizona and Nevada. In the Electoral College, which ultimately decides the American election, she would receive 319 of 538 votes. The first female president of the USA would thus achieve an even bigger victory over Donald Trump than Joe Biden did in 2020. (The Democrat won 306 electoral votes four years ago.) Is that likely? No. But not ruled out either.

Scenario 2: Harris wins by a razor-thin margin

In this scenario, the election will be decided in Omaha, the hometown of investor Warren Buffett (94). Due to a special feature, the “winner-takes-all” principle does not apply in the state of Nebraska, to which the city of Omaha belongs, and not all electoral votes are automatically distributed to the winner. Kamala Harris is the favorite in Omaha and, according to all polls, will win one vote in the Electoral College in the 2nd electoral district on the eastern edge of the state. And this vote could be the deciding factor if she wins in the Rust Belt but loses to Donald Trump in the Sun Belt. This result would best reflect the divided country, but would certainly not be acknowledged without comment by the Trump camp. Probability: High.

Scenario 3: Trump returns to the White House as a triumphant

The risk in the election campaign was worth it for Donald Trump. Thanks in part to his unorthodox strategy, the Republican wins all seven politically contested states. His 312 Electoral College votes surpass his victory in 2016, when he originally won 306 of 538 votes. Is that realistic? No, but about as likely as Kamala Harris’ dream scenario. The polls in the seven battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada) are so close that both Harris and Trump could win any swing state.

Scenario 4: A narrow victory for Trump

The Democrats fulfill their long-held dream and Kamala Harris wins the majority of votes in the state of North Carolina – but surprisingly, that’s not enough. Because Donald Trump wins in the rest of the “Sun Belt” and takes back Pennsylvania. In doing so, he is punching a hole in the Democrats’ firewall in the Rust Belt. The Republican wins 271 votes in the Electoral College and returns to the White House. This outcome would fuel a debate about the American electoral system, as it is difficult to imagine that Trump would win a majority of the vote in this scenario. That doesn’t matter. But it would offend many people.

Scenario 5: A stalemate in the Electoral College

A highly unlikely outcome of the presidential election, agreed. Kamala Harris wins a number of Sun Belt states plus Wisconsin in the Rust Belt, while Donald Trump triumphs in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina. In the end there is a stalemate in the Electoral College: both candidates would get 269 votes each. And because they would miss the majority, the emergency scenario enshrined in the constitution would come into play. The House of Representatives would elect the president (with each state having 1 vote) and the Senate the vice president in January 2025. In this scenario, Trump and his deputy JD Vance would probably have the better cards.