That’s what the latest forecasts say

The US presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be decided in seven politically contested states. We show who is currently ahead in the so-called “swing states”.

In the USA, the president is not directly elected by the people. Whoever wins a majority of the votes in the Electoral College, the body of electors, goes to the White House. The focus of the election campaign is therefore only a small group of politically contested states.

This time this group includes seven states and the votes of a total of 93 electors. Without this, Kamla Harris is ahead with 226:219 voters in the latest forecasts from the ABC election platform “538”. So she would still need 44 votes from the seven swing states to be elected. But in five of the disputed states, Donald Trump is currently ahead in the forecasts.

Arizona

The “Grand Canyon State” has only recently become a swing state. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1996, victory in recent decades has gone exclusively to Republicans. In 2020, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden was again very narrowly ahead because many centrist voters felt offended by the local Republican Party with their sometimes extreme views. What speaks against Harris and the Democrats is that immigration is the number one issue in the border state and many undecided people are currently leaning towards the Republican side because of high inflation.

Georgia

After six victories for the Republicans, the Democrats were able to secure the “Peach State” for the first time in 2020. Very close: Biden was only 11,779 votes or 0.2 percentage points ahead of Trump. What was particularly important for this success at the time was the high proportion of votes cast by the black electorate; they made up around a third of all voters. However, polls in the spring showed that Biden lost ground during his time in office, especially among younger black people. Harris was only able to partially make up for this deficit.

Michigan

The “Great Lakes State” was long a Democratic stronghold because of its many car manufacturers and factory employees, but because of the deep crisis in the automotive industry, they suddenly supported Donald Trump in 2016. Four years later, however, Biden won again by a narrow margin and Harris is now also slightly ahead in the polls. But nothing has been decided yet: The big uncertainty factor is the many voters of Arab origin who are highly dissatisfied with the current US policy in the Middle East.

Nevada

Since 1976, both Republicans and Democrats have won the “Silver State” six times each. Most recently, the “Dems” won four times in a row. Economic issues are particularly important in the desert state because of the great dependence on tourism. The recovery from the coronavirus pandemic is sluggish and the unemployment rate is among the highest in the US, which could swing the pendulum towards Trump.

North Carolina

The state is actually considered conservative. With the exception of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the Tarheel State has always voted for the Republican candidate. But with many newcomers and a high proportion of black voters, Harris and the Democrats are hoping for a surprise. In addition, the Republican candidate for governor could turn out to be a major stumbling block for Trump: Mark Robinson denies the Holocaust and describes himself as a “Black Nazi”.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the largest and most important swing state. The “Keystone State” usually goes to the Democrats, but in the most recent polls it is an extremely close neck-and-neck race. Harris needs to get as many votes as possible, especially in the urban areas around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, because Trump will win in the rural areas. Especially since the assassination attempt on the ex-president in Butler in mid-July.

Wisconsin

Since 1988, the “Badger State” has been almost entirely in Democratic hands. There was one exception, however: in 2016, Donald Trump won Wisconsin, although he was never ahead in the polls. Four years later, however, he had to narrowly admit defeat again – but only around 20,000 votes made the difference. At the moment it looks like Harris will win, also because the Democrats were able to generate votes in the agglomeration of large cities.