The last presidential election showed that a lot can happen between election night and the inauguration. The most important data for the coming days and weeks.
The storm was over, democracy was put back on track: President Joe Biden and his deputy Kamala Harris will be inaugurated before Congress on January 20, 2021.
Imago / David Tulis – Pool / www.imago-images.de
Four years ago, American electoral democracy plunged into a deep crisis because Donald Trump refused to recognize his deselection. The situation escalated on January 6, 2021, the day of the official certification by Congress.
The chaos was a wake-up call. Suddenly it was clear that elections are a vulnerable process and that the laws do not adequately protect them. Trump tried to exploit gaps and vagueness to overturn the election of Joe Biden and thus the will of the people. It ultimately failed in the courts and due to opposition from principled Republicans in swing states and Vice President Mike Pence.
Meanwhile, Congress, the courts and the Supreme Court have made the electoral process more robust. Nevertheless, events in the weeks following the election are likely to play an important role again this year. In the states, an army of lawyers from both camps is ready to challenge close election results.
The 50 states and the District of Columbia elect a president, but not directly, but through a popular vote of electors that the parties nominate in advance. Most states have laws that prevent so-called faithless electors from switching camps after the election. In 2020, there was not a single elector out of a total of 538 who refused to cast their vote for their candidate.
After the polls have closed, those responsible in the constituencies finish counting the votes and certify the result. Depending on the laws in the individual states, this takes days or even weeks.
In the USA, the election winner is determined not by the state, but by independent media. The NZZ follows the Associated Press, which uses AP VoteCast polling and analysis technology. Most of the time the result occurs on election night, but there are exceptions such as in 2000, when the votes could not be fully counted in Florida, or in 2020, when the election result was only clear on Saturday.
Possible lawsuits alleging election manipulation will begin as early as election day and could extend for more than a month. In its Election Integrity campaign, the Republican Party’s goal is to mobilize 100,000 lawyers and election observers to proactively prepare for litigation.
The Democrats, for their part, have set up an army of lawyers who are standing by in the swing states and coordinating nationally. Actions for invalidity may be made and audits or recounts of postal votes may be required. The courts and the Supreme Court are ready for express judgments.
The possible lawsuit spooky will end by December 11th at the latest. A new federal law, the Electoral Count Reform Act, requires all litigation to be completed by then and that governors (or a deputy executive member) delegate electors. “False electors” set up by the legislature as an alternative are no longer possible.
As soon as the result is known, the governors of the individual states must certify the election results. They send their official certificate to the Archivist of the United States in Washington on the same day. The official document must identify the electors and the final number of votes cast by the candidates.
The elected electors meet in their constituent states and cast their votes for the President and Vice President. Voters confirm their vote in several documents and send them to the authorities in their state and to the National Archives in Washington. The deadline for this is December 25th.
On this day, the newly elected senators and congressmen are sworn in. The House of Representatives elects a new speaker. The archivist of the United States will transmit the certificates of electoral votes from the constituent states by then at the latest.
The House and Senate will convene in Congress at 1 p.m., with Vice President Kamala Harris or her designee presiding. During the session, the ballots from the individual states are counted and the result is announced by the President of the Senate, Harris. The Electoral Count Reform Act stipulates that the role of Senate President is purely ceremonial.
In order to challenge a result from a partial state, a fifth of the votes in Congress are now required. The objections must also be confirmed by a majority in both chambers. In doing so, Congress has increased the hurdle for dubious applications, such as those made in 2020 by Republicans close to Trump.
In the event of a deadlock in the electoral votes (269 to 269), the House of Representatives elects the President. Since each state has one vote and the Republicans represent the majority of the states, Trump would probably win.
The inauguration of the elected president begins at noon. Harris or Trump take the oath of office together with their vice president. From 2 p.m. a new government will take control of the White House. The first regulations are to be expected.
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