With Sandu’s re-election, the country remains on a westward course

Moldova remains on a pro-Western course. After the wafer-thin acceptance of the referendum two weeks ago, which enshrined EU accession as a political goal in the constitution, President Maia Sandu won re-election on Sunday. Her challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo, who advocates equidistance between the former Soviet republic between the West and Russia, received a narrow majority of votes in the country itself. But the pro-Western incumbent won thanks to the votes of the large diaspora. With more than 55 percent for Sandu, the result was clearer than expected.

A president for everyone

She wanted to be a president for all Moldovans, Sandu said in a hoarse voice as she appeared in front of the cameras around midnight, visibly relieved. She not only spoke in the state language, Romanian, but also addressed the people of the country sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine in Russian.

Even well-meaning circles accuse the pro-Western camp of having long viewed the large Russian-speaking population as Moscow’s fifth column and of not making any effort to support them. The challenger Stoianoglo also made a conciliatory statement in a statement. Democracy means, above all, respect for the result, said the former attorney general. He urged his followers to remain calm.

Unprecedented influence from Moscow

This is a positive sign. Elections in small Moldova always have a strong geopolitical component. Russia, which maintains several military bases in the breakaway region of Transnistria, continues to view the former Soviet republic as part of its own sphere of influence. The country’s further rapprochement with the EU – it has been a candidate for membership since last year – should be prevented at all costs.

Before the EU referendum and the presidential election, Russian influence had reached previously unknown proportions. Observers spoke of a hybrid war by Moscow. After the first round of elections, Sandu mentioned the purchase of a total of 300,000 votes by her opponents and spoke of an unprecedented attack on democracy. The president repeated the allegations on Sunday.

Moderate demeanor from Sandu’s challenger

In this context, the focus is particularly on the fugitive businessman Ilan Sor. From his exile in Moscow, he continues to influence Moldovan politics, including through unfair means. Sor was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for his role in a spectacular fraud scheme in which nearly $1 billion worth of assets disappeared from local banks.

Shortly before the referendum, a young journalist managed to show how Sor’s environment in Moldova was systematically using cash payments to win votes. His party is particularly influential in the Gagauzia region in the south of the country, home to a Turkish-speaking but Orthodox minority that has traditionally had a strong bias towards Russia.

As can be seen from the Turkish-sounding last name, Sandu’s challenger Stoianoglu also comes from Gagauzia. However, the lawyer, who ran as the Socialist candidate, appears more ambivalent on geopolitical issues. He is in favor of joining the EU and, like the majority of Moldovans, also has a Romanian passport. His daughter even works for the European Central Bank. This should also make him eligible for pro-European citizens who are disappointed with Sandu’s government. Nevertheless, his election would have been a triumph for the Kremlin and would have increased its influence.

Sandu has made combating the country’s oligarchic power structures a priority of her presidency because they facilitate Russia’s influence. Stoianoglo’s record fighting corruption as attorney general is mixed at best.

Great importance of the diaspora

Unlike Georgia, Moldova managed to maintain its pro-Western course despite Russian pressure. It is significant that the large diaspora played a decisive role in this. In western countries, where a particularly large number of Moldovans earn their living, the opportunities to exert influence are smaller, also because of fewer dependencies. The phenomenon is not limited to Moldova. The commitment of Romanians abroad was also crucial in resisting the erosion of the rule of law in Romania.

Moscow is likely to use the importance of the foreign votes to question the legitimacy of the election. In the run-up to the polls, the Kremlin described the availability of only two voting locations across Russia as an attempt to keep pro-Russian Moldovans in the country away from the polls.

In any case, it is questionable whether the country will actually enter calmer waters with Sandu’s re-election. The parliamentary elections are coming up next summer. The president is of great importance as a symbolic figure for the direction of the country, but is dependent on a majority in parliament to implement her pro-Western policies.

Prime Minister Dorin Recean’s government is significantly less popular among the population than the head of state. Thanks to the EU’s candidate status, the leadership in Chisinau can boast successes in foreign policy, but the living situation of the citizens has hardly changed so far. The main problems include one of the lowest levels of prosperity in Europe and the judiciary, which is still riddled with corruption.

Last but not least, the war in Ukraine casts its shadow on the small country. In no other European country, with the exception of Russia and Ukraine, is the security situation so directly dependent on the course of the war.