Lhe surprise entry of Vice-President Kamala Harris into the presidential race after the withdrawal of Joe Biden last July gave hope to the Democratic Party, which was trembling in the face of the octogenarian leader’s poor polls.
The former Republican president, however, saw his electoral base – already remarkably solid – galvanized by the two assassination attempts which targeted him, in Pennsylvania in July and in Florida in September. The latest polls(1) predict a particularly close fight, even if Kamala Harris still has a very slight advantage.
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These candidates who can tip the scales
Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, both in the spotlight, are not the only ones hoping to become the American president in the November 5 elections. Other little-known candidates will also be on the ballot, even if the American electoral system means that their chances of victory are almost non-existent. However, by eating into votes, these small candidates can also have an impact on the final result.
As the campaign progressed, the independent Robert F. Kennedy Junior seemed able to count on many votes, the polls credited him with around ten percent. But ultimately, this former Democrat lined up behind the candidacy of Republican Donald Trump. The septuagenarian defends very conservative positions, particularly against vaccination. His name still appears on ballots in many American states.
Jill Stein is also a Green Party candidate on the ballot in virtually every swing state, with no chance of winning in any of them. The environmentalist could still play an important role in this ultra-close election. The Green Party, which focuses on issues of climate change, health care and ending military support for Israel, continues to attract voters from Democratic areas, votes that Kamala Harris could miss. An advertising campaign ensuring that “a Stein vote is actually a vote for Trump” was recently broadcast by Democrats in Wisconsin, but also in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two other key states.
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Face of the Libertarian Party, Chase Oliver (38), a former Democrat, defends individual rights “against the growth of state power.” His political involvement began as an opponent of the Iraq War under Republican George Bush. He now calls for extensive deregulation, the right to bear arms and simplified migration rules.
American voters can also give their votes to philosophy professor Cornel West (71), civil rights defender, known for his progressive activism and who is running as an independent, or to socialist Claudia De la Cruz, who is a pastor and leads a campaign for universal access to health care, reparations for African-Americans and drastic reductions in the military budget.
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Becoming president despite an unfavorable popular vote
These national polls do not give any indication of the popularity of the candidates in the key states, the swing states, where the November 5 election will be played out. They only give an idea of the votes on a national scale. However, the American voting system allows a candidate who does not have the majority of votes to win the election.
Indeed, becoming president despite an unfavorable popular vote: this scenario has already animated five previous presidential elections in the United States, including recently the elections of 2000 and 2016. This situation is explained by a particular electoral system, indirect universal suffrage. The population will vote on November 5 for 538 electors who will subsequently choose the future head of state. This system, which benefits certain States more than others, is not unanimous, but its reform promises to be difficult in view of the American Constitution.
(1) To analyze the forecast results of the American presidential election, The evening chose to repeat the latest polls of the New York Times/Siena College (10/25/2024), from NPR/PBS Marist (10/03/2024) and from YouGov/CBS News (10/27/2024). The graph above therefore shows the average of the results of these three surveys.
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