It was expected that the dana that has sowed death in the east of the peninsula would gradually disappear throughout this Sunday and Monday and that the situation would be more stable, but the intensity of this phenomenon has once again surprised the experts. force the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) to decree a red notice not foreseen in advance and on the fly. At around 10:15, Aemet has launched the red notice, which implies extreme risk to the lives of people and property, for the entire province of Almería, except the western area and the capital, due to the formation of a mesoscale convective system, That is, a complex of storms that is organized on a larger scale than individual storms, that persists for several hours and that is capable of leaving significant amounts of rain, large hail and very strong gusts of wind. Thus, torrential rains are expected, with accumulations of more than 60 liters in one hour, and 120 could be collected in 12 hours. Higher accumulations in some points are not ruled out.
When a red notice is issued, Aemet does so because it is expected that a threshold may be exceeded, but it does not mean that exactly that amount will fall, but rather that the figure may be exceeded and even more so in situations of damage and storms, both of which phenomena more difficult to predict. The agency has decreed seven reds in six days: on Tuesday in Valencia and Málaga, on Wednesday in Cádiz, on Thursday in Castellón, on Friday in Huelva and now in Almería, where it will be active until 6:00 p.m.
In addition to Almería, this Sunday the adverse weather will continue in the Mediterranean area as a consequence of the dana and there are warnings in other areas of Andalusia, in Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, Murcia and the Valencian Community, which is orange or important risk – the second level of three – in the last three communities (specifically in Murcia, Tarragona, Castellón and Valencia) and yellow, the minimum, in the first two.
According to Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for Aemet, in areas of Catalonia, Murcia and the Valencian Community there will be locally very strong and persistent showers, including areas already affected by the Black Tuesday floods. “These will be more localized showers, but they can leave significant accumulations of more than 50 liters per square meter in one hour and 100 to 150 liters per square meter in 12 hours,” indicates the Aemet spokesperson, to emphasize that “ There will be more isolated showers and it is possible that in some areas a lot of precipitation will accumulate and there will hardly be any rain nearby.” “We must continue to take extreme precautions,” asks the expert.
Next week “will start with generally calmer weather.” The dana will dissipate, although “on Monday morning there will still be intense showers in the Mediterranean.” On Tuesday and Wednesday “there will not be a completely stable situation because the probability of showers in the Mediterranean will continue”, but these precipitations will be “weaker and more dispersed”, they will not be significant showers. However, as of Thursday, instability could increase again in the peninsular Mediterranean and in the Balearic archipelago, with once again more frequent and intense showers, especially in Catalonia. Locally they could be strong again.
Meanwhile, a storm that, originally, will have been the subtropical storm will arrive on the Atlantic coast in the first days of next week. Pattyalthough when it reaches Spain “it will have lost its tropical characteristics and will be a normal storm.” On Monday and Tuesday, Patty It will leave rain in the west of the Peninsula, more abundant around the Central system – in the north of Extremadura and south of Castilla y León -, while in the rest of the country both days will be calmer.
No major changes are expected in temperatures, which will continue to be mild for these dates. “The environment will be temperate, especially in the extreme north, where Bilbao or A Coruña may exceed 24° or 25° on the first two days of the week,” details Del Campo. The rest of the week, “the situation will be anticyclonic and stable” with the exception of the Mediterranean.
In the Canary Islands, stable weather will also predominate, with some clouds on the most mountainous islands on Sunday and Monday, which may leave light rains. Starting on Tuesday, the skies will be slightly cloudy and temperatures will rise, with 28° degrees in coastal areas in the central hours of the day.
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