A few days before an election that is more uncertain than ever, it is with a letter signed by her hand that Kamala Harris urges Americans abroad to rally behind her candidacy in view of next November 5. “This election will define the future of our country for generations, and it is essential that every American voter, wherever they are in the world, have the opportunity to participate,” the vice president wrote on October 24, calling for to register on the Vote From Abroad platform, which helps expatriates in their voting process. The Democrat knows it: in this election which will be decided on a razor's edge, every vote counts. Those of American expatriates may prove decisive.
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Usually snubbed by candidates' campaigns, this electoral pool of around 2.8 million people is now whetting everyone's appetites. Especially since among them, 1.6 million are eligible to vote in one of the seven key states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada), according to the Democratic National Committee. “In such a close election, all votes are important,” said Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, a researcher in migration and politics at the University of Kent. Americans abroad could represent the 10,000 or 20,000 votes likely to make the difference. difference in some states.”
Decisive electoral niche
With its electoral college system, in which the candidate must win in a sufficient number of states to obtain a majority of electors (270 or more), the American presidential election can be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of states. decisive constituencies. During the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, the Republican won the presidency – after a series of recounts and legal actions – thanks to his victory in Florida obtained… by 537 votes. “Americans abroad are one of those small electoral niches that can swing a particularly contested state,” confirms Nicole Bacharan, a Franco-American historian specializing in the United States.
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The last presidential election set the tone. In Arizona, won by just 10,000 votes by Joe Biden, Americans abroad represented more than 18,000 votes. A level of participation similar to that of Georgia, won by the Democrats by 11,000 votes. Although it is difficult to know exactly the political orientation of Americans abroad, they still seem to favor the Democrats. Among all people who used the Vote From Abroad tool between 2020 and 2024, more than 77% declared themselves to be left-wing.
Enough to shake up the scenarios established by polling institutes in certain states? “Opinion studies carried out in the United States do not take into account the vote of American voters living abroad, underlines Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels. They may therefore represent a hidden part of the vote ahead of the election.” The challenge, however, lies in mobilizing this usually highly abstentionist electorate. According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), only 7.8% of them sent their ballot during the 2020 presidential election, compared to a participation rate of 67% in the United States. At issue: heavy logistical constraints forcing many voters to send their ballot by post in their state.
Seduction competition
In order to increase the mobilization of this segment of the electorate, the Democratic Party, for the first time during an American presidential election, invested $300,000 in August to support the organization Democrats Abroad, which brings together its various branches in abroad and campaigns on his behalf. “We expect a level of participation that will be equivalent or even higher than 2020, which was already an exceptional year,” underlines Amy Porter, spokesperson for Democrats Abroad France, in Paris. The mobilization was total and our teams did their utmost to encourage as many people as possible to vote.” To attract new voters, the French branch led a campaign online and on social networks, in addition to physical round tables and other poster campaigns.
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Donald Trump, for his part, promises to put an end to the double taxation system that affects Americans abroad – by requiring all American citizens to declare their income taxes in the United States, regardless of their country of residence. At the same time, the Republican Party, however, pursued a strategy of distrust with regard to these “overseas” votes, seeking to challenge their validity before the courts of three key states. However, the three procedures were all rejected during the month of October.
“The Republicans have prepared several angles of attack to contest the election,” notes historian Nicole Bacharan. “And the vote of Americans abroad is one of them.” In September, Trump had already accused, without proof, the Democrats of seeking to “cheat” thanks to the vote of Americans abroad. A way of preparing the ground, in the event of defeat.
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