WASHINGTON — Four years ago, President Donald Trump used his bully pulpit to spread lies about the election, leading his supporters to mass voter fraud to act on their beliefs and finally attack the U.S. Capitol.
With days until the 2024 elections, Trump and his allies are running a similar playbook, preparing their voters to believe the election could be rigged.
In addition to domestic disinformation campaigns, influence operations by foreign governments, foreign terrorist groups and homegrown extremism, according to dozens of pages of law enforcement documents and months of NBC News reporting, are all simultaneously trying to manipulate the election for their own gain.
“We are describing the threat environment as everything, everywhere, at the same time,” said Rebecca Weiner, deputy commissioner of intelligence and counterterrorism at the New York Police Department, in an interview describing the overall threat environment.
One big difference this time is that a Democrat is in the White House and federal authorities, including the FBI and the Department of Justice, have spent years trying to learn from them. wrong D last time around More than 1,500 Trump supporters were arrested and tried for the January 6 attack on the Capitol. They, along with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, are no longer the target of the current president – already prepared to respond to election interference attempts, both external and internal.
But federal officials warn that their role is limited by law and common practice, noting that state and local officials, not the federal government, are the primary authorities in elections. The Judiciary also, by policy, has a “quiet period” until election day, when it avoids taking public actions that could affect an election. And the Justice Department may be hesitant to do anything that could be considered political in 2024, given the extreme politicization of the country and accusations from Republicans that it was “rigged” against Trump.
Attorney General Merrick Garland In theory, he could use his own bully pulpit to push back against voter fraud conspiracy theories when the silent period ends after Tuesday or when an election is called, a process that could stretch for days. , even weeks. However, as 2020 demonstrated, election lies can spread online so quickly that even social media outlets will have difficulty publishing information in a timely manner. Furthermore, Trump and his allies have spent the last decade undermining public trust in the Department of Justice and the FBI by undermining the rhetorical power of these institutions.
“There is no white knight coming,” a federal law enforcement official told NBC News after Election Day, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe federal authorities’ stance next week.
The Justice Department and FBI will focus primarily on evaluating violations of federal law, the Justice Department said in a statement, saying it “has an important role to play in preventing and deterring discrimination and intimidation in elections, and in combating the threat of violence. Election Officials and Election Officials, and Election Fraud.
But they won't put themselves in a fact-checking role that could quickly become political fodder. Even if federal authorities investigate an allegation and find no merit, it would not be standard practice to make it public, since regular judicial branch practice is to speak through criminal charges and not publicly discuss uncharged conduct.
Law enforcement officials across the country have said they believe the 2024 election will be met with greater partisan rhetoric and confusion than the 2020 election. If the nation is too close to be able to make a call for days or more, the threat of violence and the potential for actual violence will continue to grow.
Until voters officially vote for president and vice president in state capitols across the country on Dec. 17, various groups in the United States and abroad will attempt to fill the information void with threatening rhetoric and disinformation, officials said.
Law enforcement officials hope the window for potential violence will shrink. Instead of escalating over weeks and months like they did in 2020, threats of violence may occasionally escalate as votes are counted and results are certified in the days or weeks after Tuesday.
While no direct threats have so far emerged due to the inconclusive results, angry mobs are quickly emerging online following the 2020 election as right-wing organizers are quick to get people's attention with false claims and conspiracy theories. FBI and Department of Homeland Security Already Warned A joint intelligence bulletin said that homegrown extremists who believe in election-related conspiracy theories are the most likely threat of election-related violence.
Still, another January 6th is unlikely. Security in the capital has increased dramatically. January 6 itself – the day Congress formally meets to count the electoral votes – has been designated a special national security event, bringing in more resources. Most of the leadership of the right-wing extremist groups that helped organize the attack on the Capitol are also in prison for their actions that day. The subsequent events have drawn crowds, while other Trump supporters fear, based on unfounded conspiracy theories on the Internet, that the FBI may have set them up.
Millions of Voters Still Believe Trump's Lies About the 2020 Election polling stations and state and local government buildings.
Despite its limitations, federal authorities took preparedness measures. The Department of Justice created an Election Threat Task Force, which focuses on prosecuting people who threaten election workers to address an extraordinary threat environment for election workers across the county.
Garland said in a recent statement that the Justice Department's “warning remains clear: anyone who unlawfully threatens election officials, staff or volunteers will face consequences” and that the Justice Department will continue to aggressively investigate and prosecute those who threaten election officials. Chaotic week ahead.
“For our democracy to work, Americans who serve the public must be able to do their jobs without fearing for their lives,” he said.
The FBI also established a national election command post at headquarters to focus specifically on election threats, as is standard practice in an election year. It has conducted training and simulated exercises and is monitoring the country for possible threats of violence, as well as social media threats and foreign interference.
“The command post will track status reports and significant complaints from FBI field offices; monitoring indicators of criminal attempts to disrupt the electoral process; identify trends; and provide guidance to FBI field offices,” the FBI said in a statement. “Additionally, the command post will coordinate the FBI’s response to any election-related incidents.”
Federal, state and local law enforcement agencies have participated in a series of more than 200 tabletop exercises and training operations over the past two years in anticipation of potential Election Day and post-Election Day scenarios — including active shooters or bomb threats. U.S. officials say there are plans and processes in place to deal with a myriad of potential threats and other issues. An official pointed out recent fires fueled by ballot boxes in the Northwest. Note that the incidents are under investigation and potentially affected voters have been given the option of filling out replacement ballots.
Two law enforcement officials expressed some concern that the federal response to any serious election issue could be chaotic and involve a “hodgepodge” of multiple state, local and federal law enforcement agencies and local election agencies. They fear that communicating clearly and quickly with multiple entities could be a challenge in a potentially chaotic or fluid situation.
Four other current and former law enforcement sources said they are concerned that confusion and conspiracy theories could influence parts of the law enforcement community, particularly in parts of the country where Trump has significant support. This question has come up before. According to NBC News reported, a week after the January 6th attack, a senior FBI official warned that “a large percentage” of the agency's employees were “sympathetic” to the rioters who attacked the Capitol over election misinformation.
The Department of Justice and the FBI have a more defined role in addressing foreign interference in U.S. elections, as illustrated by recent cases brought against federal prosecutors. Russian propagandist WHO Paid right-wing and pro-Trump influencers Generates billions of dollars in videos and releases them The role that China and Iran are trying to play in these elections.
Jane Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, said the post-election period is an important focus for foreign adversaries, including Russia, China and Iran, and that America's “foreign adversaries understand that this period of uncertainty and ambiguity is one that can pit Americans against each other, potentially incite violence.”, to create conflict, undermine American confidence and the legitimacy of voting.”
A Justice Department official said several investigations are underway into possible violations of election laws. Authorities expect stronger investigative and judicial action for anything that meets legal thresholds in the post-election period.
Easterly said there will certainly be incidents and disruptions in next week's election, but it's important for Americans to know that those responsible will be investigated and held accountable.
“Election authorities have been preparing for this for years. They practiced for it. They are trained for this. We work directly with them to resolve all such incidents and outages,” he said. “The process is working.”
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