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Wild cards to watch in November

There’s currently a low-pressure system brewing in the Caribbean that could grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, but several factors will shape what happens in the coming weeks.

The National Hurricane Center says there’s a 40% chance the system will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next week. But what about after that? What does the month of November hold for hurricane season?

Some of those wild cards could shield the continental U.S. from the potential storm, while others could allow it to slip through later in November.

Gyre and heat

Firstly, the atmosphere around Central America at this time of year is loaded with moisture because of what’s called the Central American Gyre, a broad rotating low that spins over the region.

“Essentially you get moisture from the Pacific pulled into the Caribbean, you get Caribbean moisture pulled into the southern Gulf and Gulf moisture pulled into the Pacific,” said meteorologist Eric Burris, of WESH 2, on a weekly tropics chat he does on X with fellow meteorologist Jeremy Nelson, of WJCL News.

“When you’re sharing all of this humid, moist air, you have the opportunity to develop stuff,” Burris said.

Given the high water temperatures in the Caribbean, and lack of wind shear, conditions are good for a storm. “The water (in the Caribbean) is certainly warm enough,” Nelson said.

Tropical depression could develop in Caribbean late this week, forecasters say

Friendly cold fronts

If a system does develop, “it’s wide open as far as where it could go,” said Burris, referring to global ensemble models. It’s likely that classic autumn cold fronts could be the most decisive force in deciding where any system travels.

At this time of year, a storm out of the western Caribbean will typically get pushed around by cold fronts descending from the continental U.S., Burris said.

Those fronts usually block storms from heading to Florida, and push them east over Cuba, the southern Bahamas, then out over the Atlantic.

“But we’ve noticed in the last couple of years fewer cold fronts — timing of cold fronts and tropical development matters,” he said.

The current forecasts for the pulse of cold fronts indicate that a storm in the first week of November would get pushed east, away from the continental U.S. But if the storm develops slowly, into mid-November, there could be a gap in cold fronts that allows the potential storm to track north and west into the Gulf.

As far as the next few weeks look, especially for those on Florida’s west coast, where residents have suffered through Helene and Milton, Burris said, “Tropical anxiety is a big thing.”

“What we’re showing right now is, low pressure is favored to be in this area (western Caribbean). How strong and what it’s going to look like in the end, don’t really know that yet. So if people are cheering for no activity, then you want a stronger cold front,” Nelson said.

Even then, the storm might have a tough time. Water temperatures closer to the U.S. have cooled, and would temper any storm.

Meteorologist and hurricane risk specialist Craig Setzer said on X that the threat to Florida “remains very low at this time. Water temps (which are dropping) are just barely warm enough to support a hurricane in the Gulf, and wind shear remains mostly high over the state.”

He said that if a system were to form and move north from the Caribbean, it would likely be deflected east and be inhibited from strengthening, thanks to wind shear.

The next named storm will be named Patty.

Originally Published: October 29, 2024 at 5:27 PM EDT

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