The Ballon d’Or is football’s most prestigious awards ceremony. Since its inception in 1956, it has been awarded 67 times, with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo winning on 13 occasions.
This year’s award will be presented on Monday and it will be the first time in 21 years that the pair have not been nominated.
Who will fill the gap — and which players, nationalities and clubs have been the most successful?
For all the popularity of football in England, only two players have won the Ballon d’Or while playing at an English club since George Best in 1968 (and only one of them — Michael Owen — was English). The other is Ronaldo, who — along with Messi — has enjoyed unprecedented success. Ronaldo has received more nominations than any other player (18), and first won the Ballon d’Or in 2008 while at Manchester United. Messi, meanwhile, has won it a record eight times.
In some years the pair received almost 70 per cent of the vote between them and their longevity clearly comes through in the data. Messi won it last year aged 36 and it was the first time a player has won it while playing for a non-European club (Inter Miami).
What comes next?
Now that the Messi and Ronaldo era has ended, who will step into the spotlight? Chances are, it will be another attacker.
Forwards have been the preferred choice historically, winning the award on 50 occasions, with midfielders in a distant second (13 times). Luka Modric is the only non-forward to win the Ballon d’Or since 2008.
Lev Yashin is the only goalkeeper to win the Ballon d’Or, back in 1963.
The favourite for this year’s title is the Real Madrid winger Vinícius Junior. The Brazil international won the Champions League last season and has stood out in a Real side full of elite talent. Aged 24, Vinícius looks set to be in the Ballon d’Or discussion for years to come.
His Real team-mate, Dani Carvajal, is also shortlisted. Carvajal scored the crucial first goal in the Champions League final against Borussia Dortmund and was part of a Spain side that were crowned European Champions.
However, despite his triumphs, many other players are favoured to finish above Carvajal in the voting. This should come as little surprise, as no defender has won the award since Fabio Cannavaro in 2006. It is worth noting that the Italy captain did so on the back of national team success.
Only one other defender, Franz Beckenbauer, has been awarded the Ballon d’Or (1972 and 1976). If Carvajal wins, he would become the first full back to claim the trophy.
Who is producing winners?
The last time a Spaniard won the award was Luis Suárez in 1960, when he played for Barcelona. Alfredo Di Stéfano, who played for Spain when he won in 1957 and 1959, is the only other player to have achieved this feat. Manchester City’s Rodri will have eyes on joining this exclusive club.
Although Spanish players may not have enjoyed success in this particular field, Spanish clubs have dominated the trophy, recording 24 wins overall (and 13 from the past 15).
When it comes to the success of different nationalities, however, Germany (including West and East Germany) are the clear leaders. Looking at the pool of all nominees, German players have been shortlisted more than 200 times.
Italy comes in second place, though their success at the awards has faltered since the turn of the century, aligning with the view that their domestic league, Serie A, has dipped in quality since the 1990s.
But what about England? A fifth of this year’s nominees are English, with Jude Bellingham the standout name. The 21-year-old has a chance to become the first Englishman to win the award since Owen in 2001. However, the trophy drought for English clubs may continue: Bellingham, of course, plays for Real Madrid.
No Scottish player has been nominated since 1987, while Welsh players have picked up 14 nominations in that subsequent period (Neville Southall, Mark Hughes, Dean Saunders, six for Ryan Giggs and five for Gareth Bale). That said, Belfast-born George Best’s success means that Wales is the only UK nation yet to have one of their own win the award. Scotland’s Denis Law claimed the prize in 1964.
Argentina have been responsible for the most wins but all eight of them have been recorded by Messi. This figure could have been much higher, if it included Diego Maradona.
Herein lies a critical point. The Ballon d’Or was exclusively for European players until 1995, when it was expanded to include all players at European clubs. In 2007 all professional footballers became eligible. Taking into account the expanded pool of players, Brazilians have received the third-most nominations (39) since 2007, behind France (51) and Spain (63).
The Messi and Ronaldo dominance may be over but when it comes to predicting future winners, you can bet on them being goalscorers. Goals win games — but also Ballon d’Or votes.
Explore the historical voting patterns of the Ballon d’Or by using our searchable table:
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