What it means for Houston’s winter temperatures and precipitation

What is La Niña:

HOUSTON – As winter approaches, the climate pattern known as The Girl is predicted to form, though it is expected to be a weak La Niña this year. The Girl typically begins when cooler-than-average temperatures develop in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America. This cooling phase impacts global weather patterns throughout the world by changing the strength and location of the jet stream. The blue areas in the sea-surface temperature anomaly map below represent below-average temperatures. You can watch this video of me explaining how La Niña is expected to affect us this winter.

Typical La Niña Winters:

Wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and northern states.

Drier and warmer weather in the southern U.S., especially in places like Texas, and Florida.

NOAA’s winter outlook:

NOAA doesn’t provide a traditional forecast but instead offers probabilities for expected conditions. The images below represent these probabilities. According to NOAA, Houston has a 60-70% chance of experiencing above-average temperatures this winter. For precipitation, there is a 40-60% chance that Houston will have below-average rainfall.

Here is the broader winter outlook:

• The temperature forecast favors warmer-than-average conditions across the southern U.S., extending northward to the Eastern Great Lakes, the eastern seaboard, and New England. The strongest odds for warmer weather are in Texas, as well as along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.

• Colder-than-average temperatures are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, stretching eastward to the northern Great Plains.

• The precipitation forecast favors wetter-than-average conditions for the Great Lakes states, the Pacific Northwest, and the Northern Rockies. Drier-than-average conditions are expected across the southern U.S., including the Southwest, southern plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. The highest chance of below-normal precipitation is indicated for parts of the Southwest, southern Georgia, and much of Florida.

• Regarding drought conditions, widespread moderate to extreme drought is expected to persist across much of the Great Plains and parts of the central Rocky Mountains. Drought is also likely to develop in the Southwest, southern plains, and parts of the Southeast, including Texas.

Houston’s winter forecast:

We have a partnership with Weatherbell.comwhich has provided us with their winter forecast. According to Weatherbell, Houston and all of southeast Texas are expected to get temperatures 3° above average this winter, making it an exceptionally warm season. With these kind of temperatures we won’t get much use out of our winter coats. Precipitation is forecasted to be below average, which will worsen drought conditions in the region.

What this all means:

In Houston, previous La Niña events have typically brought above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation during the winter. While cold spells, freezing temperatures, and even snow can still occur, the overall trend points toward a warmer and drier winter.

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