In this week’s Slappers and Bangers, we’ll look at three emerging NHL players, two forwards, and one defenceman. Each player is in a different stage of development with questions surrounding their potential.
This week we’ll dig into Trevor Zegras, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks, Kirill Marchenko, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Kaiden Guhle, D, Montreal Canadiens.
Emerging NHL Players:
Trevor Zegras C/LW, Anaheim Ducks
We expected big things last year. Some might say Zegras has already emerged as a player. Due to injuries, Zegras never settled into a rhythm, ending the season with 15 points spread over 31 games. Those 31 games were broken up by two significant injuries and he never played 10 games in any one month during the season.
After producing 61 and 65 points in his first two full seasons, expectations were for Zegras to break out in a big way. Entering 2024-25, Zegras sat at 211 career games played – smack dab on top of his breakout threshold. The Zegras fanfare soured for whatever reason this summer. Outside of injuries, I don’t see the flags. Injuries happen. That shouldn’t be enough to derail expectations, at least not after one season of them.
If you take anything from the write-off that was the 2023-24 season, it is that he produced 7 points in 7 games in April.
Looking closer at 2021-22 and 2022-23, Zegras produced similar seasons. There was little variance between shots per game, shooting percentage, time on ice overall, and the power play. His five-on-five shooting percentage (9.2 and 9.5), and individual points percentage (79.2 and 69.9), were also stable. These were his age 21 and 22 seasons.
At the end of 2022-23, Zegras received some Mitch Marner comparisons. Marner produced 61 and 69 points in his first two NHL seasons before jumping to 94 points in his third campaign.
Through three games in 2024-25, Zegras received only 36% of face-offs in the offensive zone. In previous seasons his offensive zone starts were over 60%. Zegras is a wizard with the puck. This trend won’t continue throughout the season, Zegras’s offensive zone starts will trend upward.
He’s not a big hitter. He will give you just over half a hit per game. However, Zegras is feisty and provides solid penalty minutes, hitting 88 in 2022-23.
He’s a gifted offensive player on his breakout threshold. For Zegras’ season to be defined as a breakout he needs an increase over his 65-point career high of 25%. This equates to a 16-point increase. Realizing this, Zegras would hit 81 points on the season. This should shock no one.
Kirill Marchenko, RW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Marchenko is a fun one. After two strong KHL seasons, he blasted onto the NHL scene with a Cy Young-type performance, putting up 21 goals and four assists in his first 59 NHL games. Cy Young is low-key hockey terminology for a player who produced a lot of goals, but few assists. Marchenko’s stat line read 21-4, very much like a Cy Young Award-winning record.
It is a red flag when a player is overly dominant in one point category than another. It brings into question their ability to carry the offensive play. You are also left wondering how much of their success was due to luck.
Last year, Marchenko had a solid second season with 23 goals and 19 assists. The goal increase was marginal. In 78 games he improved his rookie season by two. This is a fan and owner issue, not a player issue. Expectations on players to break out or hit their ceiling come too fast.
We saw an increase in points per game from .42 to .54 and a similar increase in shots per game from 2.2 to 2.5. These are all positive signs, even if they appear marginal.
When I review a young player’s stats, the first thing I look for is linear statistical improvements. Based on that, I’m looking for Marchenko to provide statistical improvements across the board again this year. After 140 NHL games, Marchenko is already rocking 200 shots a year. This year, I want to see him move closer to three shots per game, or 240 for the year. As you know, I love volume shooters. They help you avoid slumps.
One of the few emerging NHL players with the potential to become a star and a perennial goal-scoring machine. If healthy, Marchenko will end the year with 220 NHL games played. If a big breakout is coming, it’s more likely next year. That isn’t to say he isn’t in line for a solid increase this year, but temper expectations.
Marchenko doesn’t need to improve much to reach his 30 goals for the first time. Not hitting 30 goals would be more of a surprise. I like to hold expectations to reasonable levels. That said, a 30-goal, 25-assist type season would be a win in my books. This would set him up well for a big 2025-26 season.
Kaiden Guhle, D, Montreal Canadiens
With Lane Hutson’s head faking and dodging through traffic, Guhle is flying under the radar. His style of game doesn’t make the highlight reels on a nightly basis either.
Multi-cat pools will be Guhle’s bread and butter. His point totals will never compare to the elite defensive point producers. Instead, think of MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames, or Jake Muzzin. You know, the 40-point stalwart that stuffs all your categories like they’re Christmas stockings.
He’s receiving 51% of the Canadiens’ penalty kill ice time and only 2.6% of the power play. He’s also getting only 34.4% of his starts in the offensive zone. At 21:45 ice time per game, it is clear as day that the Canadiens rely on Guhle heavily for his defensive play. With such limited offensive opportunity, Guhle’s production is naturally limited.
This is his third NHL season. Statistically, I’m looking for Guhle to bump his shots from 1.4 and push them closer to two per game. I am hoping for a similar bump in hits. Last year he had 114 hits, 1.4 per game. Ideally, this increases to or above his rookie season of 1.81 per game. Production-wise, I’d love to see him increase from 22 to 30 or 35.
No one clambered to draft Muzzin early. However, he was always owned.
As far as emerging NHL players, Guhle won’t be a fantasy number one defenceman. He should become a must-own depth defenceman in all multi-cat fantasy leagues. Ideally, Guhle develops into a rock-solid 40-point, 150-shot, 150-hit, 180-block defenceman. He also has a little chippiness to his game and should dish 60-ish penalty minutes a season. It will be another year or two before he fulfills this completely.
That’ll do it for this week. Thanks for reading.
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