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After Kirk’s passage, it’s ex-Hurricane Leslie who sets the tone, influencing the weather in France from this Tuesday, October 15, 2024 in the evening. But especially these Wednesday October 16 and Thursday October 17, 2024, as we explained in this article.

On the menu: intense rain in the south-east of the country, but also thunderstorms over a large part of France. Which regions will be affected? We take stock.

“A lasting Cévennes episode” and gusts of 100 km/h

This time, while ex-hurricane Kirk had arrived due west, the rain will come from the south of France, in connection with the arrival of ex-Hurricane Leslie near Portugal, which will bring up looks very soft, but also very humid. “A tropical signature,” comments meteorologist Yann Amice, interviewed by actu.fr.

The rain-storm degradation, present this Tuesday, October 15 during the day over Spain, will gradually reach the Pyrenees at the end of the day. The rains will then increase in the first part of the evening.

Then, they will reach Languedoc-Roussillon “with the start of a lasting Cévennes episode »Météo France alert. All accompanied by an autan wind up to 100 km/h in Lauragais, between Toulouse (Haute-Garonne), Carcassonne (Aude), Castres (Tarn) and Pamiers (Ariège).

150 millimeters of rain and maybe even more

These are probably the departments of Gard, Hérault and Ardèche which should be the most watered, according to weather models. With accumulations of rain which could prove very (very) significant.

During the day of Wednesday October 16, 2024, accumulations of around 100 to 150 millimeters (loc >200 mm) are expected on the relief of the Cévennes. The rains will affect to a lesser extent the plains of Languedoc, eastern Corsica, and also the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region, an area where we could exceed 50 mm.

“These Mediterranean episodes are associated with upwellings of warm, very humid and unstable air coming from the Mediterranean,” Yann Amice explains to us. They arise mainly in the fall (from September to mid-December), a period when the sea is still warm, thus favoring strong evaporation.

“This initial situation, with the ex-Leslie, already benefits from a strong tropical footprint, with an air mass very laden with water »he highlights. An initial dynamic, coupled with the Mediterranean rises, which should contribute to intensifying “the precipitable potential” and aggravate this risk of heavy rains, he warns.

Entry of a cold front through Brittany on Wednesday

Special feature of this week: in parallel with this hot air coming from the south, a cold front will enter via Brittany this Wednesday October 16, 2024. A air mass conflict will give locally sustained and stormy rain over a large part of the country, while the rains will further intensify in the south-east.

Rainfall amounts could reach 40 mm locally, up to 60/80 mm from northern Occitania to Burgundy or towards the Basque Country.

The storms will then shift on Thursday October 17, 2024, towards the east and center of France, undoubtedly on areas already affected by the passage of Kirk and on soils already saturated with water – raising fears of flooding. Rainfall of 20 to 40 mm, locally 60 mm, is often expected from northern Occitanie to Burgundy.

And this, before the arrival of a windy and rainy depression in the west of France on Friday October 18, 2024, according to the weather models for this deadline.

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