Weather in Nice. Was the Orange alert exaggerated? These experts respond

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Orange rain-flood vigilance, closures of all educational establishments all day… A big Mediterranean episode was announced this Tuesday, October 8, 2024, in the morning at its peak, in Nice (Alpes-Maritimes) and on the Côte d’Azur.

But the rains and the storm were finally much less intense than expected. Did Météo-France and the prefecture services overreact? Was the phenomenon poorly predicted? These experts explain.

“A reluctance in the Alpes-Maritimes”

“Prevention is better than cure. » On the Côte d’Azur, this proverb has never been as relevant as this Tuesday. While the Alpes-Maritimes were placed on orange rain-flood alert until 2 p.m. and the prefecture decided to close all schools, the violent Mediterranean episode announced did not take place on the coast.

“Stellar rant”, “all this for three drops”, the comments are going well on social networks. But how to explain this such a big deviation from forecasts ? Contacted by actu NicePaul Marquis, independent weather expert, sees several explanations.

There is a certain reluctance. Already because of the storm Alex which left a certain trauma. On the other hand, what is counterproductive is to close schools as soon as there is an orange alert. I think there was an overreaction from the prefect because of the previous bad weather.

Limit contacts and travel

In his decree, Hugues Moutouh, prefect of the Alpes-Maritimes, motivates his exceptional decision by weather vigilance and “probable risks runoff and overflows watercourses”. The closure of nurseries and all educational establishments was then aimed at “limiting contact and travel”.

Yes, “the forecasts suggested an important episode on the border with Italy and in the upper country of Nice,” concedes Paul Marquis. However, the expert fears that these measures will be taken less and less seriously by the population in the future.

“Closing schools is excessive”

By crying wolf, people will no longer necessarily believe it. It’s a lot of politics. There was also what happened in Cannes two weeks ago. As soon as there is a storm in the following weeks, they will trigger the orange alert even if it means triggering it for nothing. The vigilance was not excessive, but closing the schools is excessive.

Bouches-du-Rhône was placed on yellow alert, yet torrential rain fell in Marseille early this morning. The Old Port found itself under the waters and many areas were completely flooded. “On the one hand we are lax, on the other too reactionary. The model overestimated the episode on 06.”

Comments nuanced by Guillaume Séchet, founder of the site meteo-villes.com, whom we also contacted.

Very random rain accumulations

“Indeed, a lot of rain did not fall in your region contrary to what was predicted by the weather models. But Météo-France did not overreact to the extent that the models indicated much higher values,” estimates the meteorologist.

The hinterland, however, experienced heavy rain: accumulations of up to 58 mm in Caussols, 65 mm in Peira Cava, 95 mm in Saint-Martin-Vésubie were noted. But the coast was ultimately “spared”. 12 mm were recorded in Nice, according to its data.

There is a random side to this type of phenomenon. It is a tropical air mass that is difficult to anticipate. The models have a lot of trouble with that, there’s a lot of energy and it goes a bit in all directions. The weather organizations did not announce this by chance, they relied on most of the scenarios considered which indicated significant rain.

“Impossible” to predict with precision

If the coastline has escaped violent bad weather, it is because an area “split in two”. “One went to the North, another to Corsica. It’s hard to say why.” What is certain, however, is that predicting these phenomena with precision is “impossible”, he recalls.

“The only thing we can criticize, and even then, is not adjusting the forecasts based on what we see” in real time, concludes Guillaume Séchet.

Some landslides occurred in Contes, Tourrettes-sur-Loup and Saint-Étienne-de-Tinée, leading to the closure of roads. The Alpes-Maritimes remain placed on yellow alert for storms until 6 p.m.

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