Weather report. Ex-Hurricane Kirk will hit France on Wednesday, what consequences for Normandy?

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Between 1^is June and November 30, 2024, the date chosen this year by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), theAtlantic Ocean is subject to the hurricane season. These systems generating heavy rain and strong winds generally originate off the coast of West Africa and head towards the Antilles.

Category 4/5 cyclone

Unlike the storms affecting more northern areas, such as Europe, a cyclone draws its energy from the oceans whose surface temperature is above 26 degrees, an essential fuel for their formation and then their intensification.

A little further north of the usual cyclone circulation zone, a high-altitude current circulates between North America and Europe, bringing depressions and un disturbed weather on the British Isles and northern France.

This week, this current, also called jet stream, will interact with tropical systems located much further south. A phenomenon that can happen regularly at this time of year.

Loss of tropical characteristics

One of them, Hurricane Kirk, named by the American National Hurricane Center (NHC), was off Bermuda, 3,000 kilometers from our coast, on Sunday. Category 4 out of 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale with average winds reaching 220 km/hKirk is currently caught up in this high-altitude current and is currently heading towards Western Europe and more mainly towards France.

Don’t panic thoughthis major cyclone will lose – passing through the northwest of the Azores – its tropical characteristics, the sea water being colder at these more northern latitudes.

Uncertainties on trajectory and intensity

On the other hand, the meteorological services of several countries are carefully following its evolution. Indeed, the “remains” of Kirk, who became a more classic stormcalled extratropical, could nevertheless provide a very turbulent weather on France, the first lands he will approach between Wednesday and Thursday this week.

Unaccustomed to simulating the movement of an ancient tropical system near Europe – as was the case with the former Hurricane Ophelia which hit Ireland in 2017 – weather models are struggling a bit to accurately define its path and his intensity.

The latter had anticipated its arrival somewhere in Western Europe last week. The eye of this depression was initially supposed to circulate between northern Brittany and the Benelux. The strongest winds being located in its southwest quadrant, the Channel coasts were positioned on the axis of the most stormy squalls. Then, as updates continue and the forecast becomes more refined, the heart of Kirk is now seen a little further south and should approach France via the Atlantic arc.

Pointed at 975 hectopascals with an atmospheric pressure gradient further tightened upon arriving in the Bay of Biscay, Kirk could generate wind gusts probably greater than 100 km/h, from a line going from La Rochelle to the north-east of France.

If certain scenarios – in the minority – model a simple gust of wind, others see a “deepening” of the depression upon its arrival in France and therefore, a violent storm, with values ​​simulated at more than 150 km/h on the ribs.

In the current state of forecasts, Normandy would then be subject to heavy precipitation rather than strong winds, particularly in the south of the region. Indeed, the most intense rains of this ancient tropical system gravitate around the center of the depression which should pass over the northwest of the country.

France will experience very turbulent weather in the middle of the week, that much is certain. It remains to be seen where the worst weather conditions will be.

Uncertainties still remain regarding the trajectory and intensity of this meteorological phenomenon. A shift of a few hundred kilometers further north or further south of the low pressure core of ex-Hurricane Kirk would radically change the sensitive weather observed on Wednesday and Thursday across all French regions.

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