L’ouragan Kirk still evolving in the North Atlantic, it is starting to lose intensity but, at 3 p.m., it is still classified as a hurricane. Category 2.
Situation in the North Atlantic Sunday October 6, 2 p.m. – EUMETSAT
The American weather agency, NOAA, produces forecast maps for hurricanes. This rarely happens, but these maps indicate a “landfall” in Europe and more particularly in France.
Predicting the path of Hurricane Kirk – NOAA
This map shows the path of the hurricane, but also contains other information. A black circle represents the hurricane (tropical cyclone), while the white circle represents in this case, a post-tropical storm.
The transition into an extratropical storm will therefore take place well before hitting Europe!
An extratropical, or post-tropical, transition corresponds to the moment when a tropical system loses its characteristics (supply by convection and heat) to enter an extratropical dynamic.
The storm finds its dynamics in air mass conflict and large-scale dynamics. The transition generally occurs when encountering cold water (which cuts off convection) or upon contact with a cold air mass.
Extratropical transition of Hurricane Fiona between September 23 and 24, 2022 – NOAA
In the case of Kirk, the transition will take place near the Azores during the night from Monday to Tuesday.
The depression will then become extratropical but will be reinforced by the warm and humid air mass carried by the ex-hurricane into contact with cold European waters.
This influx of warm, humid air is expected to fuel a severe storm accompanied by particularly heavy rains across the country.
The rains associated with the passage of the storm in France are clearly associated with the path of ex-Hurricane Kirk – TropicalTidbits
In France, this storm will consist of heavy rain, accompanied by strong gusts of wind to the south of the depression’s path, a typical characteristic of extratropical storms.
In the case of a tropical cyclone, the strongest winds are present all around the eye/center.
Forecast for Wednesday October 9, 2024
National forecast for Wednesday October 9, 2024 can be found here >>> – Meteovilles
Possible trajectories of the hurricane then ex-Hurricane Kirk – Weathernerds
The predicted trajectory of ex-Hurricane Kirk should be compared to other phenomena that have already occurred in the past.
It is even relatively common for ex-hurricanes to affect Europe, they bring strong meteorological instability in autumn to the continent, and a significant increase in rain due to the humid air masses that they drain.
Trajectory of all hurricanes between 1980 and 2005 – None of them hit Europe with all its tropical characteristics – WikipediaCOMMONS
Europe can be approached very closely by hurricanes and storms with tropical characteristics. Here are three notable examples,
Ophelia (2017)
Ophélia off the coast of Europe on October 15, 2017 – Sat24
Ophelia is a hurricane that formed in the Azores region (which is unusual), it then evolved quickly, carried by a jet branch. Its extratropical transition took place between Spain and Ireland via western France.
Extratropical transition of Ophelia – lechroniqueurmeteo
Grace (2009)
A hurricane of the same type, Grace found itself propelled towards Europe in a very warm air mass. It followed a similar trajectory, passing off Spain and France making its transition before reaching Ireland.
Hurricane Grace on the night of October 4 to 5, 2009 – lechroniqueurmeteo / MeteoFrance
Stephanie (2016)
This year, a particular storm developed in the Bay of Biscay. The arrival of cold air at altitude energized a depression located over the warm waters of the Bay of Biscay. Relatively stationary, it was fed by convection and created an eye.
Subtropical depression Stéphanie and are eye in the Bay of Biscay – Infoclimat
As this storm meets some but not all tropical criteria, it is a so-called “subtropical“. This storm is similar to Mediterranean phenomena (medicanes, for “Mediterranean hurricane”).
As seen in the previous cases, a hurricane could well affect Europe and perhaps France in the future because certain transitions took place extremely close to our coasts.
List of some extratropical storms that affected France from 1896 to the year 2000 – MeteoExtrême / Guillaume SECHET
With the warming of the waters, certain storms could continue their evolution over the missing distances until now. But these phenomena would in any case remain very weakened in the near future.
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