L’American election will be held in less than a month and will probably be played out in seven states. Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada are at the heart of the electoral strategy of Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, who are neck and neck -neck in the polls. Both have increased their trips there and do not hesitate to use major means, with significant advertising expenditure. But why are they so important?
These territories are what we call swing statesor pivotal states. That is to say states where the choice of voters can swing from the Republican side to the Democratic side from one election to the next (while other states are traditionally loyal to the same political party over the elections) . Pennsylvania, for example, voted in majority for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, then for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. The margin separating the two candidates is often very small, making them essential states for access to the White House.
ALSO READ Timothy Snyder: “Trump is a ‘sadopopulist’” They represent a third of the electors (93 out of 270) necessary to access the supreme office. As a reminder, each state has a certain number of electors, and the rule is winner takes allthat is to say that the candidate who comes first in a state wins all of its electors (who then meet to elect the president and vice-president, logically those of their camp). Pennsylvania, for example, is a heavyweight: nineteen electors. It seems impossible to ignore a victory there to hope to win the election.
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Kamala Harris, to convince, relies on the major infrastructure projects launched by Joe Biden and the support of the candidates. Donald Trump is on the verge of convincing rural populations by focusing in particular on inflation. Their gap is currently small: Harris has an advantage, but only by one or two points. Georgia and its sixteen electors also risk weighing in the balance. Advantage for the moment to Kamala Harrris, who can count on the support of a large African-American population.
Michigan, its fifteen voters and its Arab-Muslim population will also be decisive. Joe Biden’s support in Israel’s war in Gaza could, however, cost Kamala Harris dearly, especially since Donald Trump had outdone Hillary Clinton in 2016. North Carolina (sixteen electors), finally , is surely the state where voters are the most undecided: the two candidates are neck and neck, credited with 48% of voting intention each in a CNN poll.
ALSO READ American presidential election: “For the first time, I gave money to a candidate” Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, despite their lower impact (11, 10 and 6 voters), also remain to be closely monitored. In 2020, remember The Worldthe election could have changed thanks to four key states. By returning 32,507 small votes to his favor, Donald Trump could have been elected. These States are therefore not simple arithmetic entertainment but can have a considerable political impact. What will voters decide? Response in a month, November 5.
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