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Europe is watching Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 with suspicion. The return of the billionaire to the White House poses serious threats to the Old Continent, both in terms of trade and on the military, political and even digital aspects.
It is a date marked with a red cross on calendars. This January 20, Europe is scrutinizing – worried – the Trump storm sweeping across the other side of the Atlantic. Economy, politics, digital, defense, energy… Donald Trump's second presidency will also have a significant impact on Europe.
Customs duties: Trump's “deal”?
In his candidate costume, Donald Trump has advocated trade conflict in recent months. The billionaire is thus threatening to increase customs duties by 10% for all foreign companies that export their production to the United States. Several French sectors such as “spirits, agri-food and pharmaceutical products could be impacted by such a measure”, comments Lionel Fontagné, professor at Paris-1 University and director of the Institute of Macroeconomic and International Policies (i- MIP).
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By waving the customs stick, Donald Trump really wants to encourage Europeans to no longer buy Russian gas and oil, in favor of American carbon resources. As a reminder, 45% of natural gas imported into Europe in the first half of 2024 already came from the United States according to Eurostat. The economist interviewed by The Dispatchconsiders that this is the “deal” envisaged by the American tycoon. But the objective, beyond hydrocarbon exports, is a “return to protectionism to reverse the dynamic of American deindustrialization”, continues Lionel Fontagné.
Digital: battle over networks?
The Trump administration is particularly critical of European regulations on disinformation. It particularly targets the Digital Service Act (DSA) which regulates the activity of digital platforms in Europe. Brussels is leading the investigation against Elon Musk, accused of spreading false information on his social network X. The American president's right-hand man risks a large fine.
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He, like Mark Zuckerberg, his counterpart at Meta who makes eyes at Donald Trump, is seeking to have the skin of the DSA. If they succeed, social networks, already targeted for their lack of moderation in Europe, could become even more unbridled.
The specter of political interference?
Trump version 2025, from a European point of view, is “divide and rule better”, according to Romuald Sciora, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). Elon Musk implemented it in December through his unequivocal support for the German far right, with a view to the federal elections on February 23.
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“The objective is to destabilize the European powers and to encourage as much as possible the nationalist movements which would align themselves with the policies of Donald Trump,” analyzes the specialist in international relations. During Trump's second term, France will not cut corners: “We will have to expect an attempt at American interference during the 2027 presidential election”, predicts Romuald Sciora.
A gradual military disengagement in Europe?
The new American president brandishes the threat of a massive disengagement of the United States in Europe. From there to leaving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)? No, probably not.
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But Donald Trump has long stressed that he would not come to the aid of allies who did not contribute enough to the financing of the organization. The businessman was particularly critical of countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Croatia, which devote less than 1% of their GDP to financing NATO.
Ukraine's future in Trump's hands?
With the return of the billionaire to the White House, expectations are high on the Ukrainian question. Fears too. Those of seeing the destiny of Ukraine escape the control of the Europeans. Despite the wishes of Volodymyr Zelensky, the future of kyiv could be decided… without kyiv.
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Donald Trump's latest comments on the subject of a possible peace agreement thus point towards possible territorial concessions for the benefit of Russia. Not really what Volodymyr Zelensky nor his European allies like Poland or Romania expected. The latter could in fact find themselves with a threatening and reinforced Russian neighbor.
