Tiktok is on the verge of extinction in the USA. What’s next?

The US Supreme Court will not save Tiktok. He dismissed a lawsuit by the popular video platform against compulsory sales that the US Congress, with the support of the Biden administration, decided in spring 2024. The decision was unanimous. The judges supported the government’s view that the sell order was justified on national security grounds and did not constitute an intrusive interference with constitutionally protected freedom of speech. The USA fears that China could use Tiktok to spy on Americans on a massive scale.

The Chinese-based Tiktok owner Bytedance would now have to sell the American version of the video platform to a non-Chinese investor by Sunday. If this fails, American server providers and the Apple and Google app stores will no longer be allowed to work with Tiktok. If these companies ignore the law, they face fines running into millions or even billions.

Free speech activists, some politicians from both parties and Tiktok lobbyists have been frantically trying to delay the deadline in recent days, with help from either the out-elected government of Joe Biden or the new President Donald Trump. From a legal perspective, however, this may prove difficult.

The American Justice Department welcomed the court’s decision. “Authoritarian regimes should not have unrestricted access to sensitive data on millions of Americans,” said Justice Minister Merrick Garland, who will be in office until Sunday. Meanwhile, President Biden’s spokeswoman announced that he had not changed his position: Tiktok should be accessible to US users, simply under new ownership.

Donald Trump said in a post on his Truth Social news platform on Friday that the Supreme Court’s ruling was to be expected and that it must be followed. «I will make my decision on Tiktok in the not too distant future, but I need time to analyze the situation. Stay tuned!”

He had previously announced that he had spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping on the phone and also talked about Tiktok. In this message, which he published before the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump expressed confidence that together they would solve this and “many other problems.”

No surprise

Existing American users will probably still be able to access the short-video app for now if the ban goes into effect. But access would become more and more difficult because Tiktok would disappear from the app stores and there would be no more updates. The platform could probably only be accessed from the USA via detours that only technically experienced users know. Tiktok would die a slow death in America.

Tiktok may also cease operations in the USA immediately and of its own accord on January 19th; In any case, a lawyer for the company announced this step during court hearings. CEO Shou Zi Chew reacted to the decision on Friday in a video statement that he uploaded to Tiktok. However, he did not comment on the question of how his company will react in the coming days, but he heaped praise on Donald Trump: “We are grateful and pleased that we have the support of a president who really understands our platform.”

It was to be expected that the Supreme Court would decide in the government’s favor: several judges were very critical of Tiktok’s arguments in the hearing last Friday.

The Court would have had the option of temporarily suspending the obligation to sell until Donald Trump took office and negotiated his own solution. That would have been in Trump’s interest, even though he had campaigned for a Tiktok ban during his first term in office. But he has now changed his mind. However, lawyers were skeptical that the court would so obviously serve the Trump administration.

Can you still find a buyer for Tiktok?

Bytedance, the China-based owner of Tiktok, now has very little time left to find a buyer for the platform. The company has so far categorically ruled out a sale, but that could have been a negotiating tactic.

It is known that a group of buyers around the real estate mogul and billionaire Frank McCourt Bytedance has submitted an offer. The Bloomberg news agency and the Wall Street Journal recently reported, citing internal sources, that Chinese officials were considering selling the app to Elon Musk, the owner of the news platform X. Musk is dependent on Beijing’s goodwill because his car maker Tesla relies on access to the Chinese market.

A Tiktok spokesman initially described a sale to Musk as pure speculation; Bytedance has not commented on this. Such a deal would require a U-turn by the Chinese government. Some time ago, the country imposed export controls that made sales of the Tiktok algorithm abroad subject to approval. It is the real heart of the platform; and it is questionable how interested buyers would be in Tiktok if this core element was missing. So far, China has characterized the Tiktok Act as an American raid and given no indication that it would agree to sell it abroad.

Which platform do users switch to?

Tiktok has quickly become one of the most popular social networks in the USA since its launch at the end of 2016. Around 170 million Americans are said to have a Tiktok account. According to surveys by the Pew Research Center, a third of the population uses the app.

The app has now also become an economic factor: numerous influencers maintain a larger audience on Tiktok and earn their money here with advertising contracts. While many of the best-known influencers have also built a foothold on other platforms such as YouTube or Instagram, newcomers in particular rely on Tiktok: Its algorithm makes it easier for them to reach a large number of users straight away if their content is good arrive.

The market research institute Emarketer estimates that after Tiktok ends, half of the advertising dollars released could flow to Instagram, Facebook and YouTube. With Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts, these platforms have tried to copy the success of Tiktok in recent years with easily customizable and shareable short videos.

In the Apple App Store, two other possible Tiktok heirs currently occupy first and second place on the download rankings: Rednote and Lemon8. Rednote is a very popular lifestyle app in China that has recently been discovered by Americans who self-deprecatingly refer to themselves as “Tiktok refugees.” Lemon8 is not a Tiktok clone either, but looks like a mixture of Pinterest and Instagram. Users will not find the endless stream of short videos that is characteristic of Tiktok, but rather nicely presented images and somewhat longer posts on lifestyle topics such as cooking, traveling or sports.

Paradoxically, both apps have Chinese owners; Like Tiktok, Lemon8 even belongs to Bytedance. If the USA stays true to its argument from the Tiktok case, these two platforms should also be considered a security risk. And the “Tiktok refugees” would soon have to move again.