New England could potentially get hit with its largest snowstorm of the season Sunday night, expected to dump 6 inches or more of snow across Boston and coastal areas. Or, a much milder system carrying a lot less snow could unfold, meaning that once again it’s going to come down to the exact track this storm takes.
Here’s the general setup: An area of low pressure begins taking shape across the Southeast or just off the Carolina coast on Sunday morning and begins to crawl up a frontal boundary that is stalled over New England. As it approaches, the storm will draw in warmer air and moisture off the Atlantic while cold air is pulled in from the north.
Moisture surging from the south and the steep temperature difference will set up a solid rain-snow line with this storm. Unfortunately, we won’t know for sure where that rain-snow line will fall until the weekend arrives and we have a clearer picture. It could set up south of New England or set up between Boston and the Cape.
The eventual storm track will also determine whether New England sees a modest snowfall of 1 to 3 inches or higher accumulations. But the region, especially across much of Southern New England, will definitely see some snow on the ground come Monday morning.
What the models are saying
The strength of the cold front will determine whether the storm is bumped farther offshore or not. Take a look at how the Euro and GFS models are tracking this system below.
The GFS has the storm moving closer to New England, which would bring heavier snow during a shorter window. The bulk of the snow would be concentrated along coastal New England.
The Euro model, however, has the storm slipping slightly to the south, which would bring lighter accumulation across New England.
Still other models seem to be siding more with the Euro, predicting lighter snow totals, according to Globe meteorologist Dave Epstein:
-Regardless, it appears that this storm will be in and out of the region quickly, with most of the precipitation falling Sunday night and during the overnight hours.
The snow is expected to start falling between 5 and 7 p.m., Sunday and be over by early morning on Monday.
Estimated snowfall totals
As far as storm totals go, it looks like Boston and much of Coastal and Southern New England are in for at least several inches of snow.
The details will be sorted out in the coming days, but should the track lean closer to what the GFS is initializing, then we could possibly be in for the largest storm of the season with much of Southern New England picking up at least 6 inches of snow.
We’ll continue to monitor this potential storm and continue to update the impacts, but be ready to break out the shovels come Monday morning.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
