As the playoff pool narrowed this week, the odds gap separating Super Bowl contenders followed suit, with the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles making the biggest leaps.
Detroit (+280) and Kansas City (+350) still lead the board, but the Ravens’ throttling of their AFC North rival Pittsburgh saw them jump to +450 (from +600), and the Eagles moved to +400 (from +700) after trampling the Packers.
With the Rams dispatching Sam Darnold and the Vikings with prejudice Monday night, the second round is set, and the conference favorites are now in action.
Super Bowl 0dds
Detroit’s first challenger: Washington
The Lions may be the odds-on pick to win the whole show, but the NFC field seems a lot more balanced than its AFC counterpart. The Washington Commanders, for example, look far less like grist for Detroit’s mill than they did a week ago. The Commanders (+3000) had no turnovers or punts in their upset win over Tampa Bay, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was as steady as a lighthouse beam. While his legs afford Washington an offensive safety net, he beat the Bucs through the air — especially in high-leverage spots. On third and fourth downs, Daniels went 9-of-15, with 108 yards and two touchdowns and picked up eight first downs. Twelve of those pass attempts were thrown past the sticks. It was a poised and clinical performance that disabused doubters of the notion he may be overwhelmed by the stage or running out of gas in his first NFL year. Daniels is undiminished, and the Commanders are capable of testing Detroit’s vulnerabilities.
The question for the Lions is whether their offensive brilliance can keep them alive until the IR cavalry arrives on defense. David Montgomery is likely to return to the backfield for the divisional round, but the closest thing to good news on the defensive side (apart from the fact no one got hurt while on bye) is that rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold is day-to-day with a foot injury and fellow rookie defensive back Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is designated to return from IR Thursday (but remains an unknown for Saturday’s game). This is the last week they’ll be this undermanned, and Washington’s improvisational and adaptable offense looks good enough to catch them while the catching is good.
In addition to Daniels’ devastating run-pass option (RPO) attack, the Commanders have two effective dual-threat backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, a one-on-one nightmare in Terry McLaurin, and secondary and tertiary pass-catching options that can work all three levels. As injuries stacked up, the Lions’ defense was less disruptive up front, eventually falling to 11th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate. Their scheming is brilliant, but great coverage can only hold so long, and more than half of the pass yards Detroit allowed per game and two-thirds of the passing touchdowns they surrendered were when quarterbacks took 2.5 seconds or longer to throw. Daniels’ play-extending abilities are tailor-made for the matchup, and given the timing, the Commanders will get the best chance at an upset if there’s one to be had.
That’s assuming their third-best pass defense can slow the Lions’ attack, something Philadelphia and Los Angeles seem far better suited for …
Next up: Philly or Los Angeles
The Eagles and Rams defenses thoroughly bullied their first-round opponents, racking up sacks and turnovers in an overwhelming display of force. The Eagles have the better Super Bowl odds at +400 but continue to leave a lot of meat on the bone offensively. Jalen Hurts got bang for his buck, tossing two touchdowns on 13 completions, but Philly’s talent-loaded offense is far scarier on paper than in practice. By the time Philly would reach Detroit, the Lions will have staffed up defensively. Saquon Barkley and Hurts are a fine ground tandem, but unless DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are involved in something more than a sideline book club, it won’t matter how valiant a stand the defense makes.
Contrast that with the Rams (+1800), who not only swarmed Sam Darnold like he kicked a hornets’ nest but solved the puzzle of Brian Flores’ defense without needing an eraser. The Rams have already taken the (fully healthy) Lions to a photo finish once and appear to be peaking at the perfect time to avenge that overtime loss should they get the chance.
-They’d need to get through the Eagles first, and while Philly’s one-dimensional attack is a liability against Detroit, it worked wonders against LA when the two met earlier. Barkley ran for a franchise-record 255 yards, and the offensive line dominated a Los Angeles front that looked like a fighter in the wrong weight class. Sean McVay and the Rams have the brains to go toe-to-toe with the Lions but lack the brawn to match the Eagles. Regardless of who wins, the game will provide invaluable film study for Detroit.
Kansas City’s best challenger: Baltimore or Buffalo
Across the bracket, the AFC’s respite from January Patrick Mahomes is over, and the rested Chiefs will get a tune-up against a feisty-but-doomed Houston team. The Texans are +5000 to win the Super Bowl, which is generous given they have to travel to Kansas City and, should they get a miracle win, go to Baltimore or Buffalo. If that road were on a map it would be marked “impassable.”
The Chiefs’ real challenge will come from the Northeast, namely, whichever team survives the bracket’s best game.
Given their respective seasons, it’s hard to believe either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson won’t be playing for a conference championship, but the result of their early pairing is a gift to fans and pundits alike. Allen has played the best football of his career and would be a lock for MVP if not for Jackson’s eye-popping campaign for a three-peat.
Buffalo (+550) is a home underdog, which is unsurprising given the awesome display of rushing power Baltimore put on against the Steelers. The Ravens offense is as close to perfect as it gets in the NFL, and if there is a flaw, it’s not on the ground. The Jackson and Derrick Henry combination is an unsolvable problem set for even the best rushing defenses, and while Buffalo leads the league in stuff rate (23.7 percent), they’re 21st in rushing yards allowed per game and have surrendered the ninth-most runs of 10 or more yards (62). More enticing for the Ravens, the Bills stack the box only 7.1 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL and roughly three times lower than the league average. Even if Buffalo plays the run perfectly, Jackson has made the passing game nearly as lethal this season. His RPO mastery makes every play a guessing game for the defense, meaning points are an eventuality over four quarters.
The Bills have a similar one-two punch with Allen and James Cook, but the Ravens run defense is in a class by itself. First in rushing yards allowed, rushing yards per play and rushing yards over expected (-193, 100 yards better than the second-place team), Baltimore is perhaps the only run defense in the NFL that could stop Baltimore. Allen can bruise his way through most defenses, but he’ll have an easier time attacking the Ravens’ lone vulnerability. While they’ve tightened up considerably since the middle of the season, Baltimore’s pass defense is still exploitable to quarterbacks of Allen’s caliber. They allow a lot of yards through the air, and while they have the second-most sacks, their pressure rate is in the bottom 10. Allen doesn’t go down easy (fewest sacks in the NFL) and is operating with blistering efficiency, so the Bills should be able to score. The problem will be how much time they have to do it. Baltimore’s run game is the ultimate keep-away, as demonstrated by the 20-minute gap in time of possession between them and the Steelers. Buffalo’s chances will be spread out, and any mistakes will be magnified tenfold if the Ravens hold the ball for half a quarter at a time.
As for the MVP candidates, both have demons to slay. Jackson’s prolific career is marred by substandard postseasons, with a losing playoff record and brutal January stats. His final leap requires winning the big games, and downing Allen for a shot at Mahomes would be a massive step. For Allen, the Chiefs are the final dragon to slay. He’s played some of the best postseason football ever but never touched a Super Bowl, thanks to Kansas City. Both men can make their legacy statement in the next round; they just have to go through each other to do it.
(Photo of Jalen Hurts: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
