A new year, a new government, but still the same problem. François Bayrou will tackle the challenge that brought down his predecessor, Michel Barnier. Lacking a majority in the National Assembly, the Prime Minister is forced to sit down at the negotiating table with the other political parties to try to find a compromise on the budgetary texts. Between the bluff and the twists of fate, we can expect a new poker game. A quick overview of the cards in hand in each camp.
The government: A pair of 7s (we wait for the turn)
Eric Lombard receives the political forces until François Bayrou's general policy declaration on January 14. The new Minister of the Economy maintains priority on writing the budgetary text, but will have to count on other groups to have it adopted. A strong hand at the start, but which can quickly prove to be in difficulty, like a pair of 7s in poker. For the government, the situation therefore remains the same… give or take a few billion. “We have relaxed the subject a little, we are more around 50 billion euros” in savings, Eric Lombard said this Monday on France Inter. This is 10 billion less to find than for the previous text. A fragile hand, but a bit stronger than that of the Barnier government all the same
The central block: pair of 3 (hope gives life)
On the Macronist and Les Républicains side, no real change, even if it is now the boss of the MoDem who is in Matignon. The elected representatives of the government coalition should therefore unsurprisingly support the measures proposed by the executive, while trying to advance their own pawns. A correct hand, but which scares no one, like a pair of 3s. Because everyone knows that the deputies of the common base will never go so far as to censure the government. In short, they will end up folding when the game gets tense, as always.
The Socialist Party: A king and a lady (we stay to see)
Once again, the PS finds itself at the center of discussions, since Matignon seems to want to negotiate with the parties on the left of the hemicycle. A “proposal for modification and development of the retirement reform” was put forward by the government during the meeting. Party leaders therefore left the meeting rather satisfied this Monday in Bercy, while saying they were ready to censure again if they did not obtain “remarkable concessions”. The PS therefore has an interesting hand… if it is played well, like a king and a queen. The objective: to maintain pressure at the table while waiting to hit big.
The RN: 9 and 10 of the same suit (we play the straight flush in 2027)
With the redistribution of the cards, the National Rally did not gain anything. Influential under the Barnier government, Jordan Bardella's party seems to be distanced by the new team. The Minister of the Economy has already warned that he would “not necessarily” align with Marine Le Pen’s red lines. But the party with the flame remains on the lookout. In the event of failure of negotiations between the left and the government, it would once again become essential. It could also tilt the majority again in the event of censorship. It's a long-term hand, like a 9 and a 10 matched. Little chance of winning on paper, but the hope of obtaining a straight or a flush and winning the bet at the end of the game.
La France insoumise: an Ace (tempting but it can flop very badly)
The rebels did not wait for the new year to predict the fall of François Bayrou. The LFI deputies have already indicated that they will table – whatever happens – a motion of censure to bring down the government, as they did with Michel Barnier. A strong hand to start with, like an Ace, but one that can be beaten by any pair depending on what happens next. It is only at the end of the game, if all the opposing strategies have failed, that we will appreciate the value of the rebellious hand.
