The year 2024, expected to be the hottest in the world, will also be one of the hottest and rainiest for France, continuing a decade of extraordinary temperatures but in line with climatologists’ projections, Météo-France announced on Thursday. .
With a provisional average temperature between 14°C and 14.1°C, the year 2024 could finish third or fourth in the annals in France, which date back to 1900, according to data revealed in a preliminary report from Météo-France .
The year 2024 would thus only be beaten by the national record of 2022 (14.5°C), almost equaled in 2023, and would end close to the temperatures of 2020, the ephemeral previous record.
“A sign of climate change, 9 of the 10 hottest years in France occurred after 2010,” underlines Météo-France.
But the average temperature of 2024 is not expected to remain exceptional for long: Météo-France expects it to be exceeded “more than one year in two” by 2050, taking into account the current trajectory of carbon dioxide emissions. greenhouse gases of humanity.
“Illustrating the rarefaction of cold in our country”, the 40°C mark has been crossed several times again in the south of France in 2024, and the thermometer “did not fall below -15°C in plain” as already in 2023.
According to the observatory, temperatures in France over the period 2015-2024 were on average 2.2°C warmer than in the pre-industrial period, before the massive combustion of fossil fuels and the first signs of global warming. .
Consequence of this development: the metropolis experienced 13 days of heat wave on average over this period, compared to 2 per year in 1961-1990. Conversely, there has been less than one day per year of widespread cold spell over the last ten years compared to 6 previously in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.
– Soil soaked –
But where 2022 was very hot and dry, 2024 will remain an exceptionally wet year, causing repeated floods and disastrous wine or cereal harvests in places.
With 15% precipitation above normal, 2024 is “among the 10 rainiest years” since 1959, according to the national meteorological agency.
At the same time, France experienced “the greatest shortage of sunshine in 30 years” (-10%), “close” to the “historically low levels of 1987 or 1992, 1993, 1994”.
From the start of the year, Hauts-de-France suffered major flooding. In mid-May, up to one or two months of precipitation fell in two days in Moselle and Bas-Rhin.
September, the wettest in France for 25 years, was notably marked by “torrential destructive floods in Isère”, in the south-east of the country, recalls Météo-France.
In October, Ardèche suffered a record Cévennes episode, with 500 mm in one day in places, while storm Kirk caused flooding in Seine-et-Marne and Eure-et-Loire.
In Paris, with 850 mm falling since January 1, 2024 ranks “already in 2nd place” in the archives, indicates Météo-France. Corsica, on the other hand, had a dry year.
Filled with water, “the soils remained wetter than normal for eight months, unheard of in more than thirty years”, notes the report.
A taste of the future? Not necessarily, because according to climate projections for France “precipitation will remain very variable and its long-term evolution, on a national scale, is very uncertain”. Météo-France, however, expects “an increase in precipitation in winter and a decrease in summer”, i.e. an unfavorable annual distribution for agriculture or flood prevention.
In addition, “effective precipitation”, that is to say those which penetrate the soil, benefit crops and fill groundwater, “will decrease under the effect of rising temperatures”, warns the national agency .
