The question had become purely formal since the breakup, at the beginning of November, of the tripartite coalition (SPD/Greens/Liberals) that he led, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was refused, this Monday, December 16, the confidence of the German Parliament .
The rest has already been decided: the President of the Republic, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, must dissolve the Bundestag at the end of the month to provoke a snap election, sixty days later, on February 23. All the questions thus catapulted into the electoral campaign highlight the extent of the multifaceted crisis suffered by the “German model”.
Cut wages to “regain lost competitiveness”
The disruption of the industrial system has become the number one concern. The thunderous announcements from Volkswagen demanding the closure of three factories and a 10% reduction in the remuneration of its employees illustrate the seriousness of this.
Almost at the same time, on December 16 and 17, group management and the union met to try to find a last-chance compromise before a strike movement of unprecedented scale in January, according to IG Mettal. Scholz and the SPD launched the campaign on this issue by demanding “a solution that avoids the elimination of sites and jobs”.
But nothing is assured as the German “model” of social partnership is undermined; when less than one employee in two is now covered by a tariff agreement (the equivalent of our collective agreements). Some employers and experts are calling for new deregulations in order to “regain lost competitiveness”.
Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz in favorite position
And they can argue the existence on German territory itself of a highly “Anglo-Saxonized” system with Elon Musk’s Gigafactory in Berlin. Doesn't the latter produce Tesla's Model Ys intended for the European market with personnel “costs” 25% lower than those of Volkswagen in a factory without a collective agreement, without application of the 35-hour week and where the IG Metall union remains prohibited from staying?
The failure of the outgoing government's so-called energy transition policy also raises concerns among the most deprived and businesses who have seen their bills skyrocket. These days, due to the weather conditions, a dead calm associated with persistent fog, wind and photovoltaic production are at a standstill.
Result: consequence of the abandonment of “controllable” nuclear power, the prices of the kilowatt hour left in the hands of the market, display record after record, equaling or exceeding the levels reached following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
On a related note, the exceptional military budget of 100 billion euros and the announcement this summer, at the NATO summit, of the deployment of American missiles on German territory, are reviving concerns and the debate on the peace and its conditions.
Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic candidate for chancellor, is the favorite in the election. At more than 30% in the polls, he could reach a grand coalition agreement with the SPD (16% voting intentions) or the Greens (12%), more convergent, he says, with his party, on the files of the war in Ukraine, as well as the industrial crisis.
Die Linke, showing slight progress, however remains below the 5% mark like the liberal FDP. The populo-sovereignists united behind Sahra Wagenknecht are stalling at around 6%.
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