Cyclone Chido which struck Mayotte is “exceptional” because it directly hit the archipelago, while its power was boosted by particularly warm waters in the Indian Ocean linked to climate change, a meteorologist explained on Saturday to the AFP.
“We probably go back to the cyclone of February 18, 1934, so 90 years ago, to find such a violent impact on the department,” according to François Gourand, forecaster at Météo-France.
Un cyclone record
Chido surpasses Cyclone Kamisy of April 1984 which until then was a “reference” in the area, according to him. The authorities reported two deaths and “huge” damage in Mayotte on Saturday, while Météo-France noted gusts of 226 km/h at Pamandzi airport east of the “capital” Mamoudzou.
“For the eye of a cyclone to hit such a small area, there is still a probability that is extremely low, this is what makes the event a little exceptional,” according to François Gourand.
A bad climate scenario
Chido has also benefited from “an exceptional oceanic environment for several years and particularly this year, with water surface temperatures close to 30 degrees and very deep warm waters,” revealed the specialist. This phenomenon, linked to climate change, creates “a large reservoir of energy available for cyclones”, he demonstrated.
Another element that favored the development of Chido was “low wind shear”, which allowed the cyclone “to structure itself and persist”.
Our Climate file
If there is too much wind difference between the ground and altitude, “this can disrupt a cyclonic phenomenon and prevent it from developing. And there, unfortunately, that was not the case,” said François Gourand.
Hurricane season
Such phenomena are not uncommon in the Indian Ocean, where the cyclone season starts “around November, with a general peak between December and March, or even April”, detailed the meteorologist. .
For the current season, Météo-France had announced cyclonic activity slightly above normal, which is 10 storms and cyclones, including five cyclones. The prediction was “between nine and 13 storms and cyclones, and four to seven tropical cyclones.” »
