Does François Bayrou really have other assets to succeed where Michel Barnier failed?

POLITICS – Michel Barnier and François Bayrou have a lot in common. They are the same age. They have been navigating responsibilities for decades. They have a high opinion of themselves and of what a good Prime Minister should be. They are convinced that their long experience allows them to evade the traps of political politics.

Both see themselves as men of dialogue, capable of interacting with everyone, including the far right. One is Savoyard, the other Béarnais. On the steps of Matignon this Friday, December 13, the first handed over the keys to the government to the second, in a context of political stagnation which tends to turn into a regime crisis. Four Prime Ministers in one year. A record.

“No one knows the difficulty of the situation more than me,” said François Bayrou. “We are in a serious moment,” had warned Michel Barnier when he found himself in the same position three months ago, already promising to reach out to all those of good will: “ bigotry is a sign of weakness “. A quarter later, the Palois uses the same vocabulary, displays the same ambitions and assures that it can succeed where the man of Brexit failed. But then, what are his qualities that Michel Barnier would have lacked?

The Macronist map

First difference: political label. President of MoDem, François Bayrou is part of the Macronist camp. And even if his group in the National Assembly weighs less than that which supported Michel Barnier (36 MoDem deputies against 47 LR), he is perceived by the Renaissance and Horizons elected representatives as one of theirs, having contributed by his decisive rallying to the victory of Emmanuel Macron in 2017. Which, a priori, should prevent François Bayrou from the bad manners shown to Michel Barnier, by Gabriel Attal or Gérald Darmanin.

At least in theory. Because if the left outside the LFI waits to judge on the evidence before promising automatic censorship, the clemency will not be free. Which will force François Bayrou to take a step towards the New Popular Front. However, without calling into question (even partial) the pension reform or setting up a contribution on superprofits to finance a climate ISF, it is difficult for the Béarnais to guarantee the leniency of the left.

Problem: if the MoDem is the component of the Macronist camp that is the most open on these two subjects, Gabriel Attal's troops are for the moment inflexible on their dogmas. It is up to François Bayrou to find a formula that suits the left and responds effectively to the burning emergency of the deficit. All without setting fire to the presidential camp. This is precisely the equation that Michel Barnier failed to solve. Especially since the new Prime Minister is not necessarily in the odor of sanctity among Les Républicains, where some still criticize him for having chosen François Hollande over Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012.

Red lines

During a group meeting this Friday, the deputies led by Laurent Wauquiez noted that they will condition their participation in the “ project » which François Bayrou will present. Same thing for the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, who demands “ guarantees » to stay in government. Among them, “to be confirmed in the roadmap which was his”, explained the Vendéen’s entourage. This includes the postponement of the work of a new immigration law incorporating the parts of the previous text censored by the Constitutional Council. Or even the refusal to “ left markers too strong”, notably the questioning of the pension reform.

Conditions which seem, at this stage, incompatible with what the left outside the LFI is demanding to benefit from its tolerance. Among which we can incidentally cite the reappointment of Bruno Retailleau at Place Beauvau. “ I wouldn't say that we're going to censor a priori, but I'm starting to have preconceptions about censorship », reacted this Saturday, December 14 on France inter the leader of the environmentalist party Marine Tondelier, on the subject of “ choice » made by François Bayrou to first consult the Minister of the Interior. Prime ministers change, but the red lines remain. Enough to promise François Bayrou the same destiny as that of Michel Barnier? To have. Because the new head of government seems, for the moment, to obtain sincere goodwill from the National Rally, when the Savoyard could only count on its suspicious indulgence.

Conflicting injunctions

At the heart of this lenient attitude according to L’Expressthe express promise made by François Bayrou to Marine Le Pen to act quickly on the establishment of proportional representation, when Michel Barnier was content to order a mission on the subject. Certainly, the MoDem and the RN have shared this demand for years. However, the commitment made by telephone by the new Prime Minister very much resembles a “ deal » spent with the president of the far-right group. However, this is exactly what the Socialist Party refuses, which, in its press release, affirms that it will not accept that François Bayrou “ depends in any way » of the Lepenist party.

Therefore, it is difficult for François Bayrou to reconcile these contradictory injunctions and to avoid the impasses in which Michel Barnier found himself before him, given that it seems impossible at this stage to buy the clemency of the left without losing the right. , or to govern with LR without considerably offending the left. Unless, as Michel Barnier tried before him, it is a matter of counting on the RN to last: a party which (focused exclusively on the presidential election) has already demonstrated its unreliability. After his appointment, François Bayrou took up this quote that he attributed to François Mitterrand after his victory in 1981: “ finally the trouble begins “. The topic today is not when it starts, but when it ends.

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