This weekend, in a drier atmosphere, under the influence of the anticyclone, the sky is clearing and the mercury is falling. Frosts tend to spread from the northeast to the center.
Since last weekend, the atmosphere has been rather wintery in France. After a wet and windy cold spell brought by storm Darragh, which notably caused significant snowfall on the hills, the weather is drier in this second part of the week.
Consequences: the rarefaction of low clouds favors nocturnal radiation and therefore frosts. This Thursday, December 12 in the morning, it was -6.4°C in Chambonchard (Creuse), -6°C in Montluçon (Cher), -4.6°C in Aubenas (Ardèche) and -4.2°C in Tarbes (Hautes-Pyrénées).
If this cold is not exceptional for the season, the mercury will remain below seasonal averages until Sunday.
Friday, the coldest day of the week
According to Météo-France, Friday will be the coldest day nationally, “although maximum temperatures will begin to rise on Thursday in the South-West and near the Mediterranean”. The Weather Channel forecasts a thermal indicator around 3°C (average daily temperature).
Over a large northern and northeastern half, the maximums will be between 3 and 7°C. In the south, the mercury could rise to 14°C in Marseille or Biarritz. In detail, it will be between -2° and 4°C in Puy-en-Velay, between 1 and 3°C in Strasbourg, between 1 and 10°C in Limoges or between 0 and 7°C in Montélimar.
Precipitation is expected near the Mediterranean, while rare showers could stretch over the Massif Central. Elsewhere, the weather will often be dry and often gray despite possible clearings near the Pyrenees or on the Jura, Vosges or Alpine reliefs.
Part of France in the rain on Saturday
“This cold but not excessive period should continue over the weekend but the frosts will subside, due to the return of clouds from the north,” indicates La Chaîne Météo.
On Saturday, frosts will still be frequent in the morning from the center to the east of France. In the afternoon, the maximums will vary between 4°C in Belfort and Bourg-Saint-Maurice to 15°C in Perpignan, Nice and Ajaccio, passing through 10°C in Bordeaux or 6°C in Auxerre.
For the day, Météo-France forecasts rain in the south-eastern quarter, possibly reaching as far as Center-Val-de-Loire. This precipitation could thus cause snow in the Alps, or even in the Massif Central. Elsewhere, nice clearings are possible.
Reddish Sunday
Sunday weather will be calm. According to Météo-France forecasts, the clear sunshine will return to the Mediterranean rim as well as the Alps. Clearings despite cloudy and foggy periods, sometimes confusion, can be expected elsewhere in the metropolitan area. The meteorological institute also forecasts some scattered rain in the Pyrenees.
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“A slow warm spell will begin to appear over the Atlantic while the cold will persist in the east,” writes La Chaîne Météo. It will be up to 13°C in Brest, thanks to overcast weather, 10°C in Bordeaux and La Rochelle and 12°C in Biarritz.
Elsewhere, the mercury is also rising and we should hardly have any negative temperatures. It will be between 2 and 11°C in Amiens, 2 and 6°C in Lyon, and 0 to 11°C in Angoulème. “From Sunday afternoon, values will return to seasonality,” predicts La Chaîne Météo.
“Moderate” cold
As meteorologist Guillaume Séchet points out, this cold “remains moderate”. He explains that the polar air which reaches France first passes over the waters of the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea which are “still quite mild”. “Consequently, it has plenty of time to subside,” he writes on his Météo-villes site.
In addition, global warming “tends to attenuate cold air masses.” “Thus, given the same weather situation, temperatures will probably be a few degrees higher in 2024 than they would have been a century ago,” explains Guillaume Séchet.
Météo-France recalls that “days with a minimum sheltered temperature below 0°C are decreasing everywhere in France between the periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, in an undeniable and inevitable manner”. During the period 1961-1990, the average number of days of frost per year was 36, it fell to only 26 over the thirty years following, a difference of -28%.
