As we get closer to the end of the league stage of the Champions League, the calculations are becoming more and more precise. From now on, we know how many points are needed to validate the play-offs and direct qualification.
As far as the Champions League play-offs are concerned, the bar is already not very far away for Paris Saint-Germain. According to figures calculated by @FootballMeetsDatathe clubs which will have twelve points or more will officially be play-offs and will therefore validate, in other words, their place in the top 24. For Paris, currently at seven points, it would therefore be necessary to achieve two victories in the next two matches (face to Manchester City and VfB Stuttgart) to secure the play-offs. On the other hand, if PSG only wins one of its two matches and it finishes the league phase with ten points, it would have an 83% chance of finishing as a play-off.
Points and probability…
| Number of points | Probability of being top 24 in % |
|---|---|
| 12 | 100% |
| 11 | 99% |
| 10 | 83% |
| 9 | 38% |
| 8 | 5% |
Source : @FootballMeetsData
For direct qualification, which perhaps concerns Stade Brestois, who knows, the calculations were also carried out by @FootballMeetsData. Concerning the Breton club, it could have a good chance of directly validating its qualification if it takes at least two points during the next two days of competition.
The top 8 validated if…
| Number of points | Probability of being top 8 in % |
|---|---|
| 19 | 100% |
| 18 | 99,9% |
| 17 | 98% |
| 16 | 64% |
| 15 | 11% |
| 14 | 0,3% |
Source : @FootballMeetsData
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