The vote on the motion of censure of the New Popular Front and its trial change nothing. According to a study carried out by Ifop with Fiducial for Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio, Marine Le Pen would be in the lead in the first round of the 2027 presidential election if it took place now. The head of the National Rally deputies is even progressing “two points compared to the same survey in September”said Frédéric Dabi, general director of Ifop. Thus, in the first round, if Gabriel Attal represented the “centrist bloc”, Marine Le Pen would obtain 38% of the votes (compared to 35% in September), and 36% if Édouard Philippe found himself opposite her (compared to 34% in September). september).
The solidity of the vote in favor of the National Rally is striking in this poll. If Jordan Bardella were the RN candidate for this election, he would also come first in the first round against Édouard Philippe with 34% of the votes, compared to 26% for the former Prime Minister. As a whole, the right(s) would find themselves in a position of strength – between 47% and 53% depending on the hypotheses – without counting the votes for Édouard Philippe. On the Republican side, the boss of the deputies, Laurent Wauquiez, is making progress but is struggling to convince, since he is closely followed by other political figures more to the right like Nicolas Dupont-Aignan or Éric Zemmour.
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On the left, despite criticism of the other groups that make up the New Popular Front, Jean-Luc Mélenchon still comes out on top in voting intentions in the first round. Even François Hollande, tested in this study, is not making progress against the leader of La France insoumise. The latter's troops are also on a war footing, since they are working to find 500 sponsorships of elected officials in the event of an early presidential election, following a hypothetical resignation of Emmanuel Macron.
