Ten years. A decade of firmness, of strong recovery of cities, of power locked to powerful allies. Ten years swept away almost with the wave of a hand. The rapid capture of Aleppo by Syrian rebels associated with the extremist Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) last week suddenly weakened the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who remained at the head of the State since the start of the civil war in 2011. Since then, the wavering of the president's power has been confirmed, with the capture of Hama this Thursday.
“The recapture of Aleppo is a turning point in the conflict,” recognizes Bayram Balci, researcher at Ceri Sciences po Paris. The civil war, which began in 2011 at the heart of the Arab Spring, turned in favor of Bashar al-Assad in 2015 with the support of Russia, also helped by the irruption into the conflict of the Islamic State . Aleppo, the country's second city and Syria's economic heart, was taken over by the regime in 2016, and it continued to progress in the following years.
A more “mature” opposition
For three years, the front had not evolved, the Syrian regime failing to bring down the rebel strongholds. And this opposition took advantage of this time to strengthen itself. “The two important actors in the capture of Aleppo are HTS and the rebels of the Syrian National Army, supported by Turkey,” specifies Bayram Balci. Two groups marked by their relationship to Islam: “a radical Islam for HTS, which nevertheless broke with Al-Qaeda”, and a “secular, less radical” Islam on the rebel side. The latter “have matured and learned lessons from the past”, underlines the researcher.
In the Aleppo region, civilians fleeing the conflict have not been targeted by rebels. “There is no abuse against the Christian and Kurdish minorities,” notes Bayram Balci. Because the rebels have only one objective: to fight Bashar al-Assad. “The goal of the revolution is to overthrow this regime,” Abou Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, confirmed to CNN this Friday. After Aleppo, Hama fell, opening the road to Homs, before Damascus. But the rebels could delay. “Spreading too much could weaken them,” warns Bayram Balci.
Bashar al-Assad, alone in the world?
The timing of this breakthrough coincides with the difficulties of Iran and Hezbollah against Israel and of Russia against Ukraine. Allies of Bashar al-Assad. But if “Russia does not have the means to help Bashar retake Aleppo”, the Russian air force could still “massively bomb Idlib to force the rebels to return there”. An “irresponsible and criminal” act, however, which could sour relations between Turkey, support of the rebels, and the Kremlin.
-So, who can Bashar al-Assad count on? Hezbollah, exhausted by the conflict with Israel, is taking advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild itself. Iran no longer seems able to intervene. From now on, “it is Turkey which is in a position of strength”, affirms Bayram Balci. Ankara has just announced a meeting with Russia and Iran on the subject of Syria, which will be held this Saturday in Doha.
The map of the future Syria
On the ground, government forces continue to withdraw, abandoning equipment. “In the worst case scenario for him, Bashar al-Assad could lose Homs and find himself at the head of a very small Alawite state, the minority from which he comes, on the coast,” draws Bayram Balci. But he will not give up his post, he who “has always been incapable of negotiating”. The rest of Syria will therefore be without him.
Our file on the civil war in Syria
“The fragmentation will last for years to come,” warns the researcher. In a large part of the south, the Sunni rebels, “who represented 80% of the population and were ousted by Bashar”, will have to establish themselves permanently. In the north, areas controlled by Kurdish militias could remain in place. Syrian Kurdish forces also indicated this Friday that they had deployed in areas of the east previously held by government forces, in Deir Ezzor. From there, “will the Sunnis negotiate a confederation with the Kurds? » The answer will probably not be known for years, and requires a new stabilization of the conflict.
