The message is clear. Emmanuel Macron will not resign before 2027. He wants to appoint a Prime Minister capable of training “a government of general interest”, bringing together political forces who will engage “not to censor it”. Objective: to have a special finance law adopted before the end of the year authorizing the tax authorities to collect taxes and a new budget at the start of next year. For possible early legislative elections, we will have to wait, “whatever happens”, at least “ten months”, namely September 2025.
It had to be said, to reassure, to set the record straight in a situation that is unprecedented in several ways, and which continues to worry. Now we will have to do it. By going quickly to choose, but not too much. He will have to find, in the current highly degraded political context, a driver who will not be disembarked quickly, like his predecessor.
Emmanuel Macron believed he had found this five-legged sheep in the person of Michel Barnier. He won't be able to just say ” I want “, in the name of the superior interest of the nation, by denouncing the irresponsibility of its adversaries, to impose someone who holds. He will need a little time to obtain real guarantees this time. And agree to make real compromises on your side. But with whom?
What to agree on?
The New Popular Front is calling for the new Prime Minister to come from its ranks. He or she would propose to apply the NFP program, put together urgently on the eve of the early legislative elections, but “without ever resorting to 49.3”, so as to let parliament decide on the adoption, transformation or rejection of each law presented. The National Rally immediately made it known that it would censor. The center and Les Républicains (notably through the voice of Laurent Wauquiez) are not closing the door. Problem: apart from the repeal of the pension reform, which will once again see the deputies of the NFP and the RN unite their votes, on what the three large antagonistic blocs which share the seats of the Assembly could well agree ? And how, above all, can we succeed in developing a budget that achieves consensus?
Second track: take back a right-wing Prime Minister, even more so « RN compatible » than Michel Barnier. Problem: it has just been demonstrated that the RN does not care. Unless Marine Le Pen’s party limits itself to a single punch on the table – but how can we trust it from now on? – this path can break the alliance of the common base and complete the disgust of the voters who voted to block the National Rally in the last legislative elections.
There remains the idea of an alliance between government parties which would unite the social democrats (PS, Ecologists, even communists), the centrists and the LR around a few major themes generating consensus. Putting partisan quarrels aside, time to go as far as a new dissolution… while hoping that it would make it possible to achieve a majority in the Assembly.
This last scenario, which would see a moderate enter Matignon, tempts part of the left. Rebellious France, which only aspires to one thing – the resignation of Emmanuel Macron – will do everything to prevent it. Whose threat “partners” of the NFP to make them lose the upcoming elections (including the 2026 municipal elections) by presenting candidates against them. A very weighty argument which may be particularly difficult to raise. The hardest part continues.
