Bitcoin approaches $100,000, but whales prefer to wait

Bitcoin, pillar of the digital economy and central figure in global speculation, is approaching a historic milestone. As its price oscillates around the symbolic $100,000 mark, attention is focused on the movements of “whales”, those investors who hold large quantities of BTC and are capable of influencing the market on a large scale. While massive transfers of bitcoin to exchange platforms suggest liquidation possibilities, no major sales have materialized so far. This cautious posture, revealed by CryptoQuant data, reflects a wait-and-see strategy that intrigues as much as it worries investors.

The cautious strategies of Bitcoin whales under the magnifying glass

The movements of whales, these major investors capable of weighing heavily on the bitcoin market, continue to attract the attention of analysts. According to a report from CryptoQuant, BTC flows to exchanges have increased significantly in recent weeks, a phenomenon that in the past often heralded massive sell-offs. However, no large-scale liquidation has yet been observed. This atypical situation fuels speculation. Thus, “the whales seem to opt for a wait-and-see approach, which maintains great uncertainty about their real intentions,” specifies Onat Tütüncüler, expert at CryptoQuant.

Key indicators reinforce this hypothesis. The aSOPR index, a tool for measuring market profit-taking, remains remarkably stable, suggesting that these large investors are not yet exploiting the recent price rise to cash in gains. This lack of action contrasts with the previous peaks reached by bitcoin, where price peaks were regularly accompanied by massive sales. Furthermore, the macroeconomic and political context could explain this unusual caution. The American presidential election, in particular, has amplified uncertainties. Such a situation would encourage major players to wait for stabilization before taking a position. This strategic inertia could shape market dynamics in the short term, which would raise questions about the future evolution of bitcoin.

An uncertain trajectory for Bitcoin at the end of 2024

While whale movements directly influence the current market, predictions for the future fuel a complex debate among observers. Many analysts believe that Bitcoin could reach the symbolic mark of $100,000, but this objective seems difficult to achieve without going through significant turbulence. “The market may experience more ups and downs before reaching this symbolic milestone,” said Szymon Sypniewicz, CEO of Ramp Network, in a post on X, formerly Twitter. This claim is based on signals such as the gradual decline of bitcoin's dominance in the overall crypto market, an indicator that reflects a shift of investors towards altcoins.

In addition, this increasing diversification of portfolios reflects a mixed feeling among market participants, reinforced by the historical volatility of bitcoin. While some experts identify the planned April 2025 halving as a potential catalyst for a new bullish phase, others express reservations about the whales' ability to sustain short-term momentum. This caution could slow the reaching of new highs and keep the market in a phase of prolonged uncertainty. In the background, the question of investor confidence remains essential. If bitcoin manages to cross the $100,000 threshold, it will likely come at the cost of delicately navigating these divergent forces, once again illustrating its unpredictable nature.

The implications of this situation are varied and require in-depth analysis. On the one hand, the current stagnation of bitcoin could shake the confidence of retail investors, who often wait for strong signals to become more involved. On the other hand, this wait-and-see phase offers an opportunity for institutions to consolidate their positions and better prepare their strategies in the face of a constantly evolving market. In the longer term, this period of consolidation could lay the foundations for a stronger and more resilient recovery, and would reaffirm the central role of bitcoin as an essential asset in the crypto ecosystem.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I took the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this ongoing revolution.