Six months after the surprise dissolution and the anticipated legislative elections, the French National Assembly is preparing on Wednesday to censure the government of Michel Barnier, aggravating the political crisis in which the country is plunged, still without a budget.
• Also read: France: vote on Wednesday on censorship, the government calls for responsibility
• Also read: What will happen if the government falls in France?
• Also read: A motion of censure filed against Prime Minister Michel Barnier
(3 p.m. GMT) two motions of censure filed respectively by the left alliance and the far right to bring down the Prime Minister. Censorship of the government would be a first in France since 1962.
The suspense is limited, the two blocks bringing together more than the majority of votes necessary. And the fate of Mr. Barnier, a 73-year-old veteran of the French right, former Brexit negotiator, seems sealed just three months after his arrival at Matignon.
The two motions were tabled after the Prime Minister triggered article 49.3 of the Constitution on Tuesday, allowing a text to be adopted without a vote on the social security budget.
A decision taken at the end of several days of tough budgetary negotiations, during which he gave in to several demands from the far right, the referee of the game, who always asked for more.
The leader of the National Rally (RN, far right) Jordan Bardella repeated on Wednesday on public radio France Inter his opposition to “a budget dangerous for growth and purchasing power”. He also denounced “a strategy of fear” by the executive, which for several days has been brandishing the threat of a budgetary crisis in the event of the overthrow of the government.
Faced with the scenario which seems inevitable, Mr. Barnier called on television on Tuesday evening for the “responsibility” of deputies to avoid censorship, in “the best interest of the country”.
From Riyadh, President Emmanuel Macron, whose decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June plunged the country into crisis, for his part affirmed that he could not “not believe in the vote of censorship” of the government .
Months of crisis
The head of state called for “not to scare people” by mentioning a risk of financial crisis. But Mr. Barnier for his part repeated that censorship would make “everything more difficult and more serious”, while the signals are already, according to him, red on the budgetary, financial, economic and social levels.
Expected at 6.1% of GDP in 2024, much higher than the 4.4% forecast for fall 2023, the public deficit would miss its target of 5% in the absence of a budget, and political uncertainty would weigh on the cost of debt and growth.
This probable censorship follows months of crisis, triggered by the dissolution of the National Assembly after the rout of the European presidential camp in the face of the far right.
The early legislative elections resulted in the formation of an assembly fractured into three blocs (alliance of the left, Macronists and right, extreme right), none of which has an absolute majority.
And after?
In the event of censorship, it will be up to Mr. Macron, elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, to appoint a new Prime Minister. It took him nearly 50 days to appoint Mr. Barnier on September 5, after many twists and turns and controversies.
The left alliance, the leading force in the Assembly, is disunited post-Barnier. The Socialist Party would like “a left-wing government open to compromise”, but its boss Olivier Faure is opposed to the appointment, once considered by Mr. Macron, of the former socialist Minister of the Interior Bernard Cazeneuve.
For its part, the radical left continues to demand, in isolation, the resignation of Emmanuel Macron.
Within the base of the Macronists and the right, which was already struggling to support Michel Barnier in a united manner, the cracks could widen, and the boss of the right is already threatening to regain his freedom.
On the far right, Marine Le Pen, three times unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election, has her eyes fixed on the next presidential election scheduled for 2027.
But his political destiny is suspended by a court decision expected on March 31. She risks five years of ineligibility with immediate effect for misappropriation of funds from the European Parliament for the benefit of her party.
If a quick solution is not found, deputies will have to vote for a “special law” which will ensure the continuity of the functioning of the State.
Political instability partly explains the nervousness of the markets, in a context of heavy debt: France's 10-year borrowing rate even rose very briefly above that of Greece, a traditional bad student in this area. in the EU last Wednesday.
This new political crisis comes just before the reopening this weekend of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral, five years after its fire on April 15, 2019, with many personalities expected including the American president-elect Donald Trump.
