The National Assembly examines on Wednesday two motions of censure tabled by the New Popular Front and the National Rally. Franceinfo summarizes the different scenarios if one of the two texts were to obtain a majority.
A leap into the unknown. Prime Minister Michel Barnier took responsibility for his government on Monday, December 2, by triggering article 49.3 of the Constitution on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS). The latter assured that he had been “at the end of the dialogue” with political groups, notably the National Rally, to whom he has granted several concessions in recent days.
In return, the New Popular Front and the RN filed two motions of censure against the government, with Marine Le Pen denouncing a “dangerous, unfair and punitive budget”. Having failed to convince the opposition, the executive now has every chance of being overthrown on Wednesday evening, during the examination of these two texts. By adding their votes, the two blocs can in fact gather around 330 votes, well beyond the 288 required. What would happen in this case? Franceinfo takes a look at the scenarios.
Appoint a new government… but which one?
In the event of censorship, several options are available to Emmanuel Macron to form a new government. He could, as he did the day after the legislative elections, take his time and let the resigned government in charge of current affairs. But this option does not seem to be his preference, France Télévisions learned on Tuesday. If Michel Barnier falls, it will be necessary “absolutely a rapid appointment of a new Prime Minister, at the beginning of the week at the latest”assures the entourage of the Head of State, stressing that it will be necessary “calm the financial markets” and that there will be “a country to run and a budget to vote”.
Emmanuel Macron could also reappoint Michel Barnier (who ruled out this hypothesis Tuesday evening on France 2) or another personality compatible with the common base, made up of Macronists, centrists and the right. The names of Sébastien Lecornu (Minister of the Armed Forces) and François Bayrou (president of MoDem) are circulating in particular. But this new government would then face the risk of being in turn censored by the National Assembly, the motion of censure being able to intervene even without use of article 49.3 by the Prime Minister.
The President of the Republic could then choose a technical government, which had not convinced him after the early legislative elections. But the idea is far from unanimous within the common base. “A technical government? I don’t know what that means”decides a Macronist deputy. “It would be a form of immobility”rejects a right-wing MP. Others question more seriously.
“This is the ultimate avenue, but I don't believe in it at all. What legitimacy would a technical government have vis-à-vis Parliament? But we may have to go through that.”
A Macronist parliamentarianat franceinfo
For their part, the deputies of the New Popular Front once again evoke the name of Lucie Castetschosen this summer by the left to represent them. But his ability to form a government that would not be censored is uncertain. Guest of franceinfo, she ruled out the possibility that a left-wing government could integrate Macronists..?….(New window)…
Finally, Emmanuel Macron could consider building a broad coalition, going from the right to the Socialist Party – a hypothesis which also failed the day after the legislative elections, the NFP having remained united. “There is a point of balance to find” to last until July, date to which a new dissolution of the National Assembly will be possible, slips his entourage.
“We need a new method: working, including with the socialists (…) for an uncensorable government until next July.”
Emmanuel Macron's entourageat France Télévisions
“We must avoid being under the threat of censorship for months, and the only avenue I see today is on the side of the socialists”also says a Macronist senator. The PS would like to work on “a non-censorship agreement”explains MP Arthur Delaporte. The objective is to discuss with all the parties present in the Assembly, except the RN, to develop an agreement which would allow a new government to be appointed, “with a left-wing personality at its head”specifies the deputy from Calvados.
The idea was taken up by former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who plans to propose his own non-aggression pact. In the event of government censorship, the president of the Ensemble pour la République group intends to call on all republican parties, except the National Rally and La France insoumise, to find a compromise, the franceinfo political service learned. The idea is that each party feels free to vote for or against a proposal from the next Prime Minister, but undertakes not to censor him at the slightest opportunity. “We have to overcome the divisions for a year or two to emerge from the crisis”pushes a Renaissance party executive.
Get a budget adopted… but how?
The finance bill was rejected during a vote in the Assembly on November 12. Since November 25, it has been examined by the Senate. In the event of censorship, lawyers are divided on the fate of the 2025 budget, notes The World. “The text does not die if the government falls”assures constitutionalist Benjamin Morel to franceinfo. The debates would simply be frozen until a government takes up the finance bill again.
But would this text have a future? In the event of the appointment of a Prime Minister on the same side as Michel Barnier, “we can assume that he [tenterait] to pass the same budget, with in this case a motion of censure on December 20″believes Eric Coquerel. A resigning government would not be better placed to have the budget adopted, since the Prime Minister could not engage his responsibility by using article 49.3. In addition, the option of having the budget adopted by ordinance, permitted by the Constitution, was ruled out by the government.
A government with a political color other than that of Michel Barnier could try “to amend the budget sufficiently to try to pass the revenue part” by the end of December, the deadline given by the Constitution. But the timing is extremely tight and requires being able to take responsibility without being censored by the opposition – a scenario which is, in the current state of things, not acquired by any political force.
“The most likely option”according to Eric Coquerel, is therefore only a “special law” be voted to allow taxes to be collected and the State to operate at a minimum, in order to “to hold out for four to six weeks, while waiting for a new budget” early 2025. The hypothesis, permitted by article 45(New window) of the organic law relating to finance laws, was mentioned by the Prime Minister on TF1.
“If the government falls, there are emergency measures that we take with Parliament to be able to pay.”
Michel Barnier, Prime Ministeron TF1
“Morehe continued, this does not cover the whole of 2025 and above all it does not prevent the crisis or the mistrust of the financial markets, nor that everything stops and we have to start again.”
In the same way, censorship by the Barnier government would not bring down the Social Security budget either. But, in the absence of a majority capable of having this text or another adopted by the end of the year, the urgency will be to find financing for Social Security. To finance part of its expenses, the latter borrows money on the markets thanks to the Central Agency for Social Security Organizations (Acoss) with the authorization of Parliament, recall Les Echos. The latter should therefore urgently adopt a special law allowing Social Security to finance itself by borrowing on the financial markets. Otherwise, the payment of social benefits could not be ensured indefinitely.
Resign ? Emmanuel Macron rejected the idea…
In retreat since the appointment of the former Brexit negotiator at Matignon, Emmanuel Macron would, in the event of censorship, return to the forefront of the national political scene. “MNow the hand is Macron's, he will have to come back down and it will hit him.”summarizes a right-wing MP interviewed by franceinfo. “The challenge for him will be to remain on top, while public opinion holds him responsible for the situation, due to the two determining elements which are the dissolution and the degraded public deficit of France”explains pollster Bernard Sananès, of the Elabe institute, to AFP.
“Emmanuel Macron receives the bill for everything he is accused of, including by part of his electorate”
Bernard Sananès, pollsterà l'AFP
If the Elysée strategists hoped that the presidential reserve would give him color in public opinion, this is not the case: his popularity is at its lowest since his arrival in power in 2017 or since the “yellow vest” crisis the following year, according to the different barometers. Michel Barnier's failure is also considered by several of his opponents as his, since it was he who brought the former European commissioner out of retirement.
As after the legislative elections, a certain number of political actors – from Jean-François Copé to https://twitter.com/JLMelenchon/status/1863589697705910688?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet through Charles de Courson – now assert that a resignation of the president is the only solution to resolve the crisis. A scenario which relates to the “political fiction”swept the person from Saudi Arabia on Tuesday evening. If this were ultimately to be the case, a presidential election would have to be held within 20 to 35 days, according to article 7 of the Constitution. And Emmanuel Macron could not show up there.
