A year ago, the speculation was rampant as the Major League Baseball winter meetings loomed. It wasn’t a matter of if the Seattle Mariners would trade a starting pitcher to get a position player to help their offense, but which pitcher would be dealt.
Of course, the early discourse was without the knowledge of the Mariners being financially limited in payroll budget.
So while they were approached by almost every team in MLB about their willingness to trade any of the five members of their projected rotation, particularly right-handers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, who all have multiple years of club control, Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners president of baseball operations, and general manager Justin Hollander opted to keep the group together. The thinking: Why weaken the strongest part of their team and their best path to success?
“Our pitching is how we’re built,” Dipoto said.
That decision to avoid trading a starting pitcher was rewarded with an effort even beyond the Mariners’ expectation. The rotation was the best in Major League Baseball. It was durable, effective and consistent.
Seattle’s starting pitchers combined to lead MLB in ERA (3.38), innings pitched (942 2/3), quality starts (92), opponent batting average (.223), WHIP (1.03), strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.77), fewest walks-per-9 innings (1.77), fewest hits-per-9 innings (7.53), opponent on-base percentage (.266), opponent OPS (.644).
And yet, the Mariners still couldn’t make the playoffs.
A team’s strength, no matter how dominant, can’t overcome multiple mitigating weaknesses.
So as the winter meetings loom (Dec. 9-12) and with the Mariners’ projected lineup looking, well, unfinished and uninspiring, speculation has started to swirl. Will Dipoto have to relent and trade one of the starting pitchers for an infielder that can hit in the middle of the order?
Dipoto and Hollander have been vocal in their reticence to trade a starting pitcher. But they also have to listen to offers on those pitchers while also keeping an eye on projected payroll budgets for seasons ahead and rising salaries due to salary arbitration.
Current depth chart
MLB: Luis Castillo, RHP, Logan Gilbert, RHP, George Kirby, RHP, Bryce Miller, RHP, Bryan Woo, RHP
Triple-A Tacoma: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Casey Lawrence, RHP, Logan Evans, RHP, Blas Castano, RHP, Brandyn Garcia, LHP, Jhonathan Diaz, LHP
Double-A Arkansas: Michael Morales, RHP, Jimmy Joyce, RHP, Reid VanScoter, LHP, Danny Wirchansky, LHP, Nick Payero, RHP
High-A Everett: Sheldon Pennyhouse, RHP, Marcelo Perez, RHP, Jordan Jackson, RHP, Ashton Izzi, RHP, Tyler Gough, RHP
Low-A Modesto: Walter Ford, RHP, Pedro Lemos, RHP, Aneury Lora, RHP, Jurrangelo Cijntje, SP
Key number
149 — The number of starts out of 162 games made by the quintet of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. The Mariners used only seven starting pitchers the entire season; Emerson Hancock started 12 games and Jhonathan Diaz started one. Despite using fewer starting pitchers than any team in baseball, they still managed to throw the most innings (942 2/3) of any rotation.
Key quote
“We are not just hoping to avoid it. On the continuum of A to Z, that would be Plan Z times some denominator. We could shoot ourselves in the foot by trying to get too crafty in what we do. Our pitching is how we’re built. I love our rotation. That wouldn’t be Plan A, but we’ll go into every offseason open to whatever ideas might take us better.” — Jerry Dipoto on trading a starting pitcher
Key offseason question
Will the Mariners reach Plan Z and be forced to trade a starting pitcher?
Overview
While the sum of their production numbers is impressive, it also takes away from the individual improvement and accomplishments.
Perhaps it’s better to look at what they accomplished individually as well.
Gilbert was named the Mariners’ most valuable pitcher by the local BBWAA writers after putting together his best MLB season. He led all of MLB with a career-high 208 2/3 innings pitched and WHIP (0.887), two things no other Mariners pitcher has accomplished. In 33 starts, he posted a 9-12 record with a 3.23 ERA. He was named to the American League All-Star team and finished sixth in the voting for the AL Cy Young Award. He was also the first Mariners pitcher since Felix Hernandez in 2014 to pitch 200 innings and strike out 200 batters in a season.
Castillo suffered a mild hamstring strain in the final weeks of the season that forced him to the injured list and kept him from equaling the 33 starts he posted in 2023. In his 30 starts, he posted an 11-12 record with a 3.64 ERA. In 175 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 175 batters with 47 walks and a 1.17 WHIP. He wasn’t quite as dominant as in 2023, struggling with command at times, but still posted 18 quality starts.
Kirby made 33 starts, posting a 14-11 record with a 3.53 ERA in 191 innings pitched with 179 strikeouts and only 23 walks. He set career highs in starts, wins, innings pitched, total strikeouts. For the second straight season, he tallied 20 quality starts — something only two other pitchers accomplished — and also led MLB in lowest walks per nine innings (1.1). Of his 33 starts, he pitched six-plus innings in 22 of them.
In his second MLB season, Miller made 31 starts and posted a 12-8 record with 2.94 ERA and 18 quality starts. In 180 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 171 strikeouts with 45 walks and a 0.976 WHIP.
After spending the offseason working on adding a split-finger fastball and some in-season adjustments to his breaking pitches, Miller joined Hernandez as the only pitcher to produce a sub-3.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP.
He dominated opponents at T-Mobile Park, posting a 6-3 record with a 1.96 ERA in 16 starts. In 96 1/3 innings, he struck out 111 batters with only 23 walks.
Woo started the season on the injured list with some forearm discomfort and missed two weeks during the season with a hamstring strain. But when he was healthy, he was dominant. In 22 starts, he went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. He had 15 starts where he allowed two earned runs or fewer. In 121 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 101 hitters and walked only 13. Opposing hitters managed a .211/.237/.337 slash line against him.
His aggressive approach to attacking hitters yielded a 72.9% first-strike rate, which was the highest of any starter since MLB started tracking first-pitch strike percentage in 1988 (minimum of 120 innings pitched).
It’s easy to see why the Mariners wouldn’t want to trade any of the five starters.
But if they did, who would step into that open spot?
Hancock, the former first-round pick, would get the first chance. He was serviceable filing in during Woo’s two stints on the injured list, and for Castillo at the end of the season.
In 12 starts, he posted a 4-4 record with a 4.75 ERA. He doesn’t have the fastball velocity or off-speed stuff to miss bats or dominate hitters like the current rotation. But he’s proven he can be a No. 5 starter at the MLB level.
Garcia and Evans — the Mariners’ two most-ready pitching prospects — could also get an opportunity.
Evans posted a 9-5 record with a 3.20 ERA in 22 starts and 10 relief appearances for Double-A Arkansas last season. The Mariners tried to convert him to reliever briefly midseason, but it didn’t yield expected results and transitioned him back to starting.
Garcia started the season at High-A Everett, posting a 6-0 record with a 1.84 ERA in 12 starts. He moved up to Arkansas and made 13 starts, finishing with an 0-2 record and a 2.83 ERA. The Mariners have said they are considering him in a relief role for the MLB bullpen if needed, but will keep him stretched out as a starter in spring training.
