Lecornu, Bayrou, Cazeneuve… Who to replace Michel Barnier at Matignon?

On the edge of the precipice, Michel Barnier has never seemed so close to falling, just three months after his appointment to Matignon. After the activation of article 49.3 on the Social Security budget, the Prime Minister must overcome two motions of censure on Wednesday afternoon, including that of the left which should be voted on by the troops of the National Rally. An almost inevitable scenario which, barring any surprises, would cause the resignation of the head of government. Le Figaro takes stock of the names circulating to succeed Michel Barnier, in the event of censorship.

François Bayrou, Macron's historic ally

Eternal ally of the Head of State, the boss of MoDem seems more than ever in the running to win Matignon if the chair were to become available. “Obviously François Bayrou is in this frame of mind but it’s not just a question of the man”recognized this Tuesday morning the boss of the centrist deputies, Marc Fesneau, at the microphone of France inter.

In this delicate equation, without a clear majority in the Assembly, the mayor of Pau (Pyrénées-Atlantiques) imagines finding support on part of the left-wing benches, while coaxing those of the National Rally (RN). “Bayrou's candidacy has the advantage of calming the RN, while reassuring the left », summarizes an observer. Intractable with the positions of the party in the flame, François Bayrou nevertheless maintains a form of respect towards Marine Le Pen, whom he sponsored during the last presidential election in the name of pluralism.

Relaxed in February in a case similar to that affecting the RN, the champion of proportional representation also harshly judged the requisitions of the prosecution in the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front. Will these signs of attention be enough to attract the goodwill of nationalist elected officials, who will once again hold the future of the next prime minister in their hands?

Since this summer, the High Commissioner for Planning – whose name had already been circulated for Matignon – has in any case been pleading for a “disinterested, pluralistic and coherent government” made up of “personalities of character”as he defended it in Le Figaro in mid-August. So many ideas that he undoubtedly developed with the influential secretary general of the Élysée, Alexis Kohler, whom he received at the beginning of November in his city of Pau. The two men even met again at the beginning of last week in the secrecy of the presidential palace.

Sébastien Lecornu, loyal to the head of state

He is one of the last survivors of Emmanuel Macron's presidency. Faithful to the Head of State, Sébastien Lecornu has been part of all government teams since 2017, until reaching the prestigious position of Minister of the Armed Forces. Reappointed by Michel Barnier, the Macronist has the advantage of being appreciated by the “new world”, while having followed a more classic trajectory: beginnings as a parliamentary assistant, then a first mandate as mayor until taking the head of the department of Eure.

Known as a discreet negotiator, the minister could serve as a link with the right-wing benches, from which he comes and with whom he remains on good terms. Unlike Michel Barnier, to whom Marine Le Pen criticizes a lack of “consideration”Sébastien Lecornu maintains working relations with the nationalist troops which he takes care to protect in the same way as the other parties. The senator from Eure – one of the few on whom the head of state can count – is also elected on lands conquered by the flame party.

Already last January, her name was circulating to replace Élisabeth Borne at Matignon, before the presidential choice fell on Gabriel Attal. “Everyone finds him very clever, but that doesn't make a policy », squeaks an LR deputy, who gives a rather scathing assessment of his action. Revitalized, the Lecornu hypothesis could also tense part of the presidential camp, which fears an orientation of the executive too favorable to the RN.

Roland Lescure, the historical walker

Unknown to the general public, Roland Lescure has become one of the last Historical Walkers best placed in Parliament. An influence which he intends to use to return to “overcoming divisions”, as the head of state had theorized. A month after the appointment of Michel Barnier, at the end of October, the former Minister Delegate for Industry had made progress in Le Figaro the idea of ​​a “coalition of reasonable people”. “The only arithmetic way to manage this Assembly without needing Marine Le Pen”he confided, as if anticipating the fall of the government.

Elected to the vice-presidency of the National Assembly, he also prided himself on having brought together the boss of LR deputies, Laurent Wauquiez, up to the socialist François Hollande, including François Ruffin. A time cited for Matignon this summer, this supporter of the left wing of the presidential camp is a fervent defender of the “republican front” which he intends to bring to life in the Hemicycle. An anti-RN line which could cost him the post of prime minister.

Bernard Cazeneuve, the revenge of Matignon

The summer soap opera seemed to have definitively buried the Cazeneuve option. Preferred over Michel Barnier, the former socialist had missed the Matignon march after being dropped by Olivier Faure's troops. Ranked behind the joint candidate of the New Popular Front, Lucie Castets, the Rose Party had ruled out unconditional support for a government led by the former prime minister of François Hollande.

The predictable fall of Michel Barnier, who was supposed to be the bridge between the right and the presidential camp, nevertheless gives new color to the hypothesis of the former Minister of the Interior. Especially since the Lucie Castets blow has since fallen, including on the socialist benches. Invited this Tuesday morning on BFMTV, the boss of the PS, Olivier Faure, did not completely rule out an appointment of Bernard Cazeneuve, provided that he wears the “program of the New Popular Front and suggests it to Parliament”. The head of state, who received the ex-socialist last September, seems for the moment to be looking more to his right than to his left.

Bruno Retailleau, from the Interior to Matignon

By settling in Beauvau, Bruno Retailleau recovered the government's most exposed portfolio. A ministry which allowed him, from the start, to establish media omnipresence by hammering home his ambition: “establish order”. Law on the fight against drug trafficking, a new text on immigration… A firm attitude which, those around him were able to congratulate, went so far as to destabilize his adversaries in the National Rally.

This is therefore a profile which, within a rather transparent government, stands out. Too much, perhaps, for Matignon? On several occasions, the Minister of the Interior did not hesitate to play with the red lines of his (occasional) Macronist allies, assuming to launch “positive controversies” in public debate. As for his relations with the Head of State, those around him assure that they are “good”both parties respecting each other's functions. At Figarothe first cop in France affirmed, and continued to reaffirm thereafter: “My loyalty to the head of state is acquired.”

Xavier Bertrand, the return to grace

Once seriously considered, the track of Xavier Bertrand was disconnected at the start of the school year by the veto of the National Rally. Marine Le Pen and her people, who have very poor relations with the LR boss of Hauts-de-France, then threatened to censor him as soon as he took office at Matignon.

In the presidential camp, some still want to believe in the chances of the former Minister of Labor to have influence in the game, three months later. In their eyes, Xavier Bertrand, even hated by the RN, could keep the benches of the right while speaking to those of the left. Returning to the forefront this summer, the person concerned has in any case shown himself ready to take on the role of prime minister.

A technical prime minister

One last card remains on Emmanuel Macron's desk. Short of political options, the head of state could consider appointing a “technical government” around experts and specialists. A new type of team, never before experienced in France, of which the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, could for example take the lead. Already expected this summer for Matignon, this high-ranking official would then have declined “believing that a technologist like him would be crushed in the arena of the National Assembly, particularly in the face of the howls of the rebels”indicates a relative.

Also read
Karim Bouamrane (PS): “In the event of censorship, we must appoint a technical government”

Another technical profile, that of Thierry Breton, former boss of France Telecom and Atos, former French Minister of Finance, and former European Commissioner in charge of the Internal Market. While Emmanuel Macron wanted to bring him back to Brussels, he resigned with a bang in mid-September, claiming that Ursula von der Leyen had put pressure on France to submit another candidate. Could he become the next tenant of Matignon? “Impossible with his pay slip and the sale of his Atos shares”estimates an informed observer of the political world

Michel Barnier, the scenario of a renewal

Nothing prevents Emmanuel Macron from renaming Michel Barnier, even ousted by the National Assembly. In 1962, Georges Pompidou, also overthrown by a motion of censure, regained his position as prime minister, a few weeks after his resignation. The difference was that General de Gaulle had at the time initiated a dissolution, the results of which had confirmed his majority.

The idea is slowly making its way into the ranks of the “common base”. End of November in Le Figarothe elected LR, Valérie Bazin-Malgras had clearly called on the head of state to “to ignore” of the deputies' sentence. However, even surrounded by a new government, Michel Barnier would risk being immediately overthrown by a new motion of censure.