Monday, in Matignon, the Prime Minister announced the forceful passage of the social security financing project through the activation of article 49.3. A conscious decision, precipitated by the end of negotiations with Marine Le Pen. Story of a shift.
Budget, 49.3, censorship. And crisis? In a few hours, the fate of Michel Barnier's government was sealed. And it is ultimately the social security financing bill which will have determined the fate of Michel Barnier, trapped until the end by Marine Le Pen and the National Rally.
It all starts this Monday, December 2, at 1:45 p.m., within the grounds of the Palais de Matignon. Around the Prime Minister are the presidents of the common base group (Ensemble, Les Républicains) in the National Assembly and the Senate. Before the decisive vote on the bill, the head of government brought together the strong forces of his camp to discuss the procedure to follow. An interview impacted by a simple phone call.
In the middle of an intervention, Michel Barnier interrupts the meeting, participants report to BFMTV. An incoming call on his phone. He turns the phone over and shows it to the audience. The screen displays: “Incoming call Marine Le Pen”.
“Excuse me,” said Michel Barnier. He immediately leaves to take the leader of the National Rally deputies on the phone.
“Good news and bad news”
At the end of the line, an opponent to whom he has already offered two concessions. First, the withdrawal of a surcharge on electricity on November 28. Then, only a few hours before this call, a withdrawal on the reimbursement of medicines. A point set by Marine Le Pen as one of the two remaining red lines to avoid censorship.
After this call, Michel Barnier returns to his guests. He explains to the participants that Marine Le Pen told him “good news and bad news”. The good news is that she is giving up demanding a measure on employer contributions. The bad one? In addition to medication, she wants a reversal from the government on the postponement of pension indexation.
When Michel Barnier returned, the tone changed. All participants are unanimous:
“Michel Barnier makes us understand that enough is enough. That the negotiations are over.”
The inevitable fall?
At that moment, Michel Barnier understood that Marine Le Pen would not give up, whatever he did. And whatever he offers, it would go as far as censorship. He said, in essence, “every time I give up on something, she asks for something else,” the participants testify.
Fall of the government, censorship of the budget: what could be the consequences for the real estate sector?
The negotiator, architect of the difficult discussions on Brexit, was unable to convince the far-right party. It was at this moment that it was decided to activate article 49.3. In a message to the party forces, he announced it soberly:
“As you imagine, we are in a serious moment. (…) I have decided to hold our government accountable for the conclusions of the CMP on the PLFSS. I will do so this afternoon after having sought compromises to the end in a spirit of dialogue”, he signs “friendly”.
A decision inexorably causing the filing of motions of censure, and its downfall? Answer this Wednesday, at 4 p.m.
Anne Saurat-Dubois with Tom Kerkour
