Decisive week at the National Assembly. After several days of negotiations, Michel Barnier finally decided to resort to article 49.3 of the Constitution and to hold his government responsible for the Social Security bill. This article allows the text to be adopted without a vote, but exposes the government to a motion of censure to bring it down. The NFP has already assured that it wants to take this path quickly, as has the RN. The Extreme Party – which felt this morning that it had not obtained enough concessions – decided to maintain the pressure, citing the vote on the motion of censure unless there was a “last minute miracle, if Michel Barnier were to revise his copy”.
Message received at Matignon where the Prime Minister announced a new concession at midday. After having already partially acceded to the requests of Laurent Wauquiez and Gabriel Attal – on the indexation of pensions for one and on reductions in charges for the other – decided to satisfy almost all political parties by announcing last Thursday ” a drop in electricity prices of 14%”, the Prime Minister committed not to reduce the reimbursement of medicines by the “Secu” in 2025, after a telephone call with Marine Le Pen. He then invited all the heads and presidents of the “common base” parliamentary groups to Matignon, before the opening of the debates in the Assembly, to confirm the use of 49.3.
And now ? The left announced that it would table a motion of censure which should not be voted on before Wednesday. The RN confirmed that it intended to censor the government. The far-right party, which plays down the consequences of the vote on a motion of censure and a possible fall of the Prime Minister's team, already seems to have another target in mind, that of the President of the Republic. The idea of an early presidential election is also gaining ground. It was requested last week by the LR mayor of Meaux Jean-François Copé and the general rapporteur of the Budget Charles de Courson. Within the RN, where we are preparing for a new dissolution of the National Assembly which could occur in July 2025, the idea of resuming the electoral battle, if possible before Marine Le Pen can be condemned by the justice to a penalty of inequality, is not to displease.
The days of the Barnier government therefore seem numbered. What is the upcoming political calendar? What will happen now? In the meantime, many are worried about the absence of a 2025 budget and the potential fall of the government, first and foremost farmers who are waiting for measures and wondering what will become of the latest promises from the current team.
The experts:
– Christophe Barbier – Political editorialist, editorial advisor – Franc-Tireur
– Nathalie Saint-Cricq – Editorialist – France Télévisions
– Lou Fritel – Political journalist responsible for monitoring the rights
Paris Match
– Philippe Dessertine – Director of the Institute of High Finance, author of “The great shift”
Presented by: Caroline Roux, Axel de Tarlé
Production house: France Télévisions / Maximal Productions
France
