The rapid advance of the Syrian rebel groups into the center of the megacity of Aleppo is a sign of weakness on the part of ruler Bashar al-Assad with an outcome that is not yet foreseeable, says Middle East expert Bente Scheller from the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Berlin.
Bente Scheller
Political scientist and Middle East expert
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Bente Scheller heads the Middle East and North Africa department at the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Berlin. This is close to the German Greens.
SRF News: How do you assess the current situation in Syria?
Bente Scheller: The current development also comes as a surprise to many observers. Rebels from Idlib province have advanced into Aleppo, seemingly taking control of the city overnight. The offensive was obviously unexpected and, according to current knowledge, there was little resistance from the Assad regime’s troops.
Assad is on his own and his forces are unable to push back the rebels.
Why is the rebel attack coming now?
On the one hand, this initiative was prepared long in advance. We have been observing that the rebels have been training for this for months or even years. On the other hand, the Syrian ruler Assad is weaker than in the past. Its big supporters, Russia and Iran, are busy with their own wars and problems: Moscow in Ukraine, Iran and its significantly weakened ally Hezbollah in the conflict with Israel. Assad is on his own and his forces are unable to push back the rebels.
It remains to be seen how the HTS Islamist rebels, who have been ruling Idlib for a long time, will come to terms with the Kurds.
Will a new war break out in Syria?
At the moment too much is still up in the air. It remains to be seen how the HTS Islamist rebels, who have been ruling Idlib for a long time, will come to terms with the Kurds. The Syrian rebels are supported by Turkey and represent a virtual counterpoint to the Kurdish forces. However, they may be able to come to terms politically in Syria. It is also unclear what will happen to the rest of the country. In the far south, there have been repeated protests in the provinces of Suweida and Daraa in recent weeks. If this becomes more pronounced, things may get tight for Assad.
What does the additional instability mean for the region?
This means there are even more uncertainties. In any case, Assad, as one of Iran’s allies, is now under even greater pressure. It had already become clear that Israel was taking its affairs into its own hands. Israel has also carried out hundreds of air strikes against Iranian allies on Syrian territory in recent years. It is impossible to predict whether there will be further escalation here. With Assad, a regime that was able to hold its own strongly over long years of conflict and with which Arab states were currently seeking normalization would be in danger.
The interview was conducted by Michael Wettstein.
