Aleppo: Syria’s President Assad is under pressure – and is planning a counteroffensive

The surprisingly rapid advance of rebels in northwest Syria is putting considerable pressure on President Bashar al-Assad after years of largely stalemate in the civil war. Now the ruler, who is supported by Russia and Iran, wants to regain the upper hand: With the help of his allies and friends, Syria is able to repel the terrorist attacks, Assad told the President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Sajid Al Nahjan, according to state sources Broadcasting Authority. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Damascus later today to discuss the situation in Aleppo with his Syrian counterpart, the Iranian news agency Irna reported.

A devastating war has been raging in Syria since 2011, which has completely divided the country. Assad’s government recently controlled around two-thirds of the country with the help of its allies Russia and Iran. Opposition forces dominate parts of the northwest. There is no political solution to the conflict in sight.

Rebel alliance brought almost all of Aleppo under their control

On Saturday, a rebel alliance brought almost the entire city of Aleppo in northern Syria under their control in a lightning offensive. The Syrian army said it would soon begin a counteroffensive. Since Wednesday, the insurgents from the northwestern province of Idlib had advanced further and further into areas controlled by the Syrian army.

The offensive is led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It is considered the successor to the Al-Nusra Front, a former offshoot of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda in Syria. However, according to terrorism experts and security agencies in the United States and Australia, the group changed its name in 2016 and broke with al-Qaeda. HTS is described as a terrorist organization whose operations are focused on Syria. Despite its public split from Al-Qaeda, HTS pursues a Salafist-jihadist ideology, writes the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Russia once again intervened in the war

In view of the latest escalation, Russia’s military once again intervened in the war on Saturday and attacked rebel units with fighter jets. Around 300 fighters were killed, said Oleg Ignasyuk, deputy head of the Russian mission in Syria. Command posts, artillery positions and rebel camps were attacked. “The operation to counter extremist aggression will continue,” the state agency Tass quoted him as saying. Ignasyuk’s information could not be independently verified. He also did not provide any information about where the fighter jets were deployed.

Activists at the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Russian warplanes carried out nine attacks on locations in Idlib province. The Syrian army also attacked targets from the air. The Observatory, based in Great Britain, obtains its information from a network of local informants.

Since 2015, Russia has provided massive military support to the Syrian government in the civil war and, with its superior air force, has helped Assad re-establish his position of power, which had been faltering in the meantime. Since then, Moscow has stationed fighter bombers and helicopters at Hmeimim airport, as well as a troop contingent of unknown strength in the port city of Tartus.

At least 327 people killed since the offensive began

At least 327 people have been killed since the surprise rebel offensive began on Wednesday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. There are more than two dozen civilians among them.

The US government attributes the vulnerability of the Syrian power apparatus to its dependence on Russia and Iran – and to Assad’s refusal to engage in a political process to end the war. The spokesman for the National Security Council in the White House, Sean Savett, also asserted that the USA had nothing to do with the offensive. This is led by the HTS group.

In Aleppo, rebel groups and government troops and their allies fought heavy battles in the first years of the civil war. In 2016, the rebels were driven out of eastern parts of Aleppo in fighting. Russia and Iran helped government troops regain control of all of Aleppo.

Battle for Aleppo could become bloody again

Between 2012 and 2016 the city was almost completely destroyed. The battle for Aleppo at that time was – especially in the final phase – one of the most brutal in the Syrian civil war. Parts of the devastated city were later rebuilt. Today, around 2.5 million people live in Aleppo. The rebel alliance’s offensive is the first attack on the city by Assad’s opponents since 2016.

In view of an expected counteroffensive, Middle East expert and author Daniel Gerlach fears that a renewed battle for Aleppo could become bloody again. “This will now cost a lot of lives again,” he told the German Press Agency.

Gerlach believes it is possible that the government will regain the upper hand. Assad’s allies Iran and Russia are weakened or do not have the same capacities as before. Nevertheless, the Syrian government has units capable of carrying out urban warfare. The strategy of first withdrawing and then striking back with experienced units has been seen again and again in recent years, he says.

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