This Golden State Warriors team isn’t supposed to win without Stephen Curry, so it’s hard to fault the comeback that fell a bit short against the OKC Thunder. However, against the fuller perspective of this season, these losses are beginning to pile up uncomfortably fast.
So hopefully Curry can return to action tonight against the Phoenix Suns. Golden State has a lot to figure out, and a trade deadline that will be here before you know it. There are some pretty simple issues going wrong for the Warriors at the moment, and Curry’s return could be the catalyst that lowers all of these little barriers to execution.
And this would be a good game for Curry’s return. Andrew Wiggins has unexpectedly shown up on the injury report with some sort of ankle injury – both are listed as Questionable. Phoenix just got Kevin Durant back from an early season calf issue and will be seeking to correct their slow start trajectory.
WHO: Golden State Warriors (12-6) at Phoenix Suns (10-8)
WHEN: Saturday, November 30th, 2024; 6pm PST
WATCH: NBCSBA; ESPN2
Basketball is complicated. These are human beings operating at the absolute edges of physical and mental performance. Against regular folks, any NBA team would look like superheroes. So it’s not really about an objective measure of “are they any good” or not. They’re good. Millions of dollars per year level of good.
So it’s the margins that really matter the most. To me, it’s becoming more clear why the team had the off-season they ended up having. Sure, it would have been nice to land some big name star that fit well. But whatever. This roster is soooo close. A mix of veterans and youth; homegrown talents, journeymen, and newcomers. Maybe this can work. Certainly the strong opening to this season supported that viewpoint.
The injuries have stacked up enough now that Plan A is gone. The key off-season addition of De’Anthony Melton’s season-ending knee surgery guaranteed that. And Golden State can’t just swap parts out like Legos. Especially if that piece in question is Curry. There’s simply no replacement for his offense. On a roster constructed to be the complementary defensive element around Curry, it’s easy to see how quickly it could all fall apart without the offense.
And it has. The Warriors offensive rating has absolutely tanked recently. After spending most of the opening month in the top five, Golden State is now all the way down at 9th when it comes to offense. The defense is still holding strong (ranked 4th), but without the offense, this roster isn’t all that dangerous.
This has always been Kerr’s game. Presume that Curry and the squad can provide ample offensive opportunities, fill in the defensive gaps. When the defense falters, the other side can probably pick up the slack, but the focus during the dynasty era has generally been on defense. So of course, there’s some cratering that occurs on the offensive side of the ball – a reality that has frequently caused this team to bleed points whenever Curry was out.
Thankfully, in some other ways, basketball is not actually that complicated. What if there was an evident solution? Just make your shots, right?
I’m a visual learner. I think it’s probably the default setting for a lot of people. But because this is how I work, I tend to really vibe with visuals. As someone who spends a lot of my life staring at data and figuring out how best to analyze it, please accept my professional opinion that this image conveys a deep and meaningful insight into the Warriors’ season.
Look at how much of an outlier value they are when it comes to the easiest shots in the game; free throws and layups:
Being bad in both dimensions is exactly the sort of double whammy screw up that this roster simply cannot afford. Maybe with an abundance of talent, but that’s not the Warriors’ current reality.
This isn’t the type of setup that can afford to give away the easy ones. Before I get too hung up on roster, or rotational decisions, it’s this image that I find at the forefront of my mind. The Warriors aren’t making free throws and they’re missing layups. Frequently. Remember that these are some of the best in the world, and you may find your frustration growing.
Durant’s return to action with Phoenix and the Warriors currently wobbly orbit make this one a bit more tricky, but Golden State should escape with a win if they can remember how to make their shots. Warriors win a tight one.
