The HTS Islamists and their allies took the “major part” of the city of Aleppo after an incursion, launched on Wednesday, which left more than 300 dead, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Aleppo had not experienced such a situation since 2020. The jihadists and their allies took the “major part” of the second Syrian city after an offensive against government forces, declared the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), Saturday, November 30. In three days, they “took control of the majority of the city, government centers and prisons”, as well as the Aleppo airport, writes the OSDH in a press release. The assault, launched on Wednesday, has so far left 311 dead – mainly combatants, adds the NGO based in the United Kingdom. The Syrian army confirmed the information, ensuring that members of“armed terrorist organizations” had been able to “penetrate large parts of the neighborhoods of the city of Aleppo”.
Behind this incursion, dubbed “deterrence of aggression”, is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group dominated by the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, and other factions hostile to the Syrian regime. This attack shatters the precarious calm in north-west Syria, made possible by a ceasefire established in March 2020. The offensive was launched from Idlib, a province which borders that of Aleppo and a rebel stronghold and jihadists. Friday, “two suicide attacks with car bombs” at the gates of the citadel preceded the arrival of jihadists in the city, according to the OSDH.
The troops of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have failed to maintain their control over the country's second city. According to the head of the OSDH, Rami Abdel Rahmane, “The governor of Aleppo and the commanders of the police and security services have withdrawn from the city center”. “The pace of the collapse of the regime’s positions is spectacular”also assures Karam Shaar, researcher at the American think tank New Lines Institute, Liberation. “He made the decision to withdraw because he believes he has neither the human power, nor the armaments, nor the support of his allies to resist such an attack”he believes.
The Syrian army nevertheless assured, initially, of having pushed back “the great offensive of terrorist groups” and regained several positions. The Syrian air force, for its part, launched intensive raids on the Idlib region, said the OSDH. But “In many ways, [Bachar al-Assad] has been more vulnerable than ever in the last two or three years – economically, socially and militarily.”underlines Charles Lister, expert at the Middle East Institute, on X.
In addition to Aleppo, the rebels have conquered around 70 localities, including the town of Saraqeb, according to the Syrian Observatory based in the United Kingdom, which has a wide network of sources in the country. The offensive does not come out of nowhere, however. “The armed opposition, located in the North-West, has always had a 'round 2' in preparation. It has been training for this for years”assures Charles Lister. For Dareen Khalifa, expert from the International Crisis Group, the operation had been prepared for several months.
“The offensive was presented as a defensive campaign in the face of an escalation of the regime.”
Dareen Khalifa, expert from the International Crisis Groupà l'AFP
The head of the self-proclaimed “government” in Idlib, Mohammad al-Bashir, justified the offensive on Thursday by accusing the regime of having “began bombing civilian areas, which caused the exodus of tens of thousands of people”. But Dareen Khalifa points out that HTS and its allies “also observe regional and geostrategic change”. Their offensive was launched the same day that a truce came into effect in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, and while Russia is in the middle of war in Ukraine. “They think that now the Iranians are weakened” and the Syrian regime stuck, underlines the specialist.
Because behind the two belligerents, there are other allies. On the one hand, Bashar al-Assad benefits from the support of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, thanks to which he regained control of a large part of the country in 2015 and in 2016 the entire city of Aleppo. The Russian army also announced on Friday to bomb “positions” groups “extremists” in Syria. The OSDH reported Russian air raids on Aleppo during the night from Friday to Saturday, the first since 2016. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on Saturday for a “coordination” between Tehran and Moscow in order to “neutralize this dangerous plot”.
On the other hand, certain rebel groups are supported by Turkey, which controls several areas of northern Syria. In its first official reaction, Ankara castigated the “attacks” on Idlib and its region after a series of raids carried out by Moscow and Damascus. Secondly, the head of Turkish diplomacy spoke on the telephone with his Russian counterpart on “the dangerous development of the situation” in Syria, according to Moscow. “It seems that Turkey is not directly involved, but is letting things unfold, without taking a clear position”judge Haid Haid, analyst for the British think tank Chatham House, with The Orient-The Day.
The fact remains that the offensive comes at a time when the attempt at rapprochement between Syria and Turkey is producing nothing. Moscow and Iran are pleading for a relaxation, but Damascus is demanding a withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in northern Syria, along their common border. On X, Caroline Rose, of the Newlines Institute, argues that the measured reaction of Bashar al-Assad's allies could well be “a way of forcing the regime to negotiate with less force, in the absence of any sign of support from the Russians and Iranians.”
