Four years of truce, then the capture of a major city in just a few days. On Wednesday, jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance dominated by the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, and rebels supported by Turkey attacked regime territories in the province of Aleppo and in the neighboring region of Idlib. This Saturday, Aleppo, the country's second city, is in the hands of the attackers.
The lightning offensive by jihadists and rebel forces in Syria is surprising, given that the region is already largely shaken by the conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. Why attack now? What are the issues? What consequences for the Syrian regime? What is the human toll? 20 Minutes takes stock.
Why attack now?
Just three days were enough to conquer dozens of villages and especially “most” of the neighborhoods of Aleppo, government buildings and prisons, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH). The operation had been prepared for several months, assures Dareen Khalifa, expert from the International Crisis Group.
“It was presented as a defensive campaign in the face of an escalation of the regime,” she underlines, in allusion to previous intensive bombings by the Syrian army and its Russian ally against rebel areas in the northwest. But HTS and its allies are also “observing regional and geostrategic change.” Their offensive was launched the same day a truce came into effect in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, an ally of the Syrian regime and Tehran. “They think that now the Iranians are weakened and the regime cornered,” said Dareen Khalifa.
What international diplomatic issues?
The conflict between the Syrian regime and the rebels is therefore directly correlated to the room for maneuver of their allies, regional or global powers with sometimes contrary interests. On Friday, the Kremlin, entangled on the Ukrainian front, called on the Syrian authorities to “bring order as quickly as possible” to Aleppo. Tehran, for its part, denounced a plot fomented by the United States and Israel.
The relationship between Syria and Turkey doesn't help either. Moscow and Iran are pleading for a relaxation, but Damascus is demanding a withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in northern Syria along the border. Turkey, which supports rebels in northern Syria, has called for an end to the regime's “attacks” on the Idlib enclave. “In the coming days, if the rebels manage to keep their territorial gains, it will be a revealing test of the extent of Turkish commitment,” says Dareen Khalifa.
What consequences for the Syrian regime?
The offensive is undeniably a hard blow for Bashar al-Assad. “The regime lines collapsed at an incredible pace which took everyone by surprise,” said Dareen Khalifa. Despite fighting confirmed by the Syrian army, jihadists and rebels have progressed without being confronted with “any significant resistance” assures Rami Abdel Rahmane, who heads the OSDH.
In the past, Damascus has been able to count on the support of the Russian air force and the forces of Lebanese Hezbollah, absorbed over the past two months by their open war against Israel. The dazzlingness of the offensive is a “reminder of how weak the regime is,” he believes, adding that the pro-government forces had probably let down their guard thanks to the precarious calm that reigned in the north.
What human toll?
The fighting left more than 300 dead between Wednesday and Friday evening, mainly combatants, including around a hundred government forces and their allies, but also 28 civilians, according to the OSDH. “On Saturday, at least 16 civilians were killed and 20 injured when war planes, probably Russian, targeted civilian vehicles” in a sector of the city taken by the rebels, added the OSDH, which has 'a vast network of sources in Syria.
