A coalition of jihadist and Syrian rebel forces launched an offensive on Wednesday on Aleppo, a large city in northern Syria, and controlled “most of it” this Saturday. A snub for the regime of Bashar al-Assad, whose forces retook the hard-fought zone in 2016 thanks to the support of Iran and Russia, today considered weakened by the attackers.
At the end of three days of offensive against the armed forces of Bashar al-Assad, jihadist and Syrian rebel forces took control this Saturday, November 30, of the “major part” of Aleppo, the second most populated city in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), an NGO based in the United Kingdom which has a vast network of sources in Syria.
This attack shook the entire northeast of Syria, which had not experienced attacks of such intensity for at least four years, after having been at the heart of the fighting on numerous occasions since the start of the war. Syrian civilian in 2011.
• A coalition of jihadists and rebels
On Wednesday, the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an alliance dominated by the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, and rebels, notably remnants of the Free Syrian Army, supported by Turkey attacked territories of the regime in the province of Aleppo and in the neighboring region of Idlib (northwest).
In images released by the fighters, we see them wearing Islamic State insignia alongside others who wear symbols of this rebel Free Syrian Army and nationalist opponents of the regime of Bashar al-Assad since the start of the war.
Just three days were enough to conquer dozens of villages and especially the “major part” of Aleppo neighborhoods, government buildings and prisons, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH).
The fighting left more than 300 dead, mainly combatants – including around a hundred government forces and their allies – but also 28 civilians, according to the OSDH.
The operation had been prepared for several months, assures Dareen Khalifa, expert from the International Crisis Group. “It was presented as a defensive campaign in the face of an escalation of the regime,” underlines Dareen Khalifa, in allusion to previous intensive bombings by the Syrian army and its Russian ally against rebel areas in the northwest.
After more than a decade of war that has divided Syria, the belligerents are still supported by different regional and international powers with divergent interests.
• Syria's allies perceived as weakened
In the past, Damascus has been able to count on the support of the Russian air force and the forces of Lebanese Hezbollah – absorbed over the past two months by their open war against Israel.
HTS and its allies also “observe regional and geostrategic change.” Their offensive was launched the same day a truce came into effect in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah – an ally of the Syrian regime and Tehran.
“They think that now the Iranians are weakened and the regime cornered,” says Dareen Khalifa.
In recent months, in parallel with the war in Lebanon, Israel has carried out several strikes on Syrian territory, saying it wants to neutralize Hezbollah by targeting its arms transfers coordinated with Tehran and Syrian forces.
For its part, Russia is in the middle of a war in Ukraine. “The Russian presence has been considerably reduced” in the region, explains analyst Aaron Stein, president of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute.
• A turning point in the civil war?
The offensive is undeniably a hard blow for Damascus. The loss of the neighborhoods of Aleppo is all the more symbolic since in 2016, the reconquest by the regime of all the rebel sectors of the metropolis constituted an essential victory for Bashar al-Assad and his allies.
This battle of Aleppo then represented a turning point in the Syrian war. It was marked by a strong intervention by the Russian air force, engaged in 2015 in Syria to put the weakened regime back on track.
“The regime lines collapsed at an incredible pace which took everyone by surprise,” said Dareen Khalifa.
The rebels cut the strategic M5 highway linking Damascus to Aleppo, and a road junction providing the connection to Latakia. Despite fighting confirmed by the Syrian army, jihadists and rebels have progressed without being confronted with “any significant resistance” assures Rami Abdel Rahmane, who heads the OSDH.
On Friday, the Kremlin called on the Syrian authorities to “bring order as quickly as possible” to Aleppo. Tehran denounced a plot hatched by the United States and Israel.
The offensive comes at a delicate diplomatic moment: for years a potential rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara has stalled. Moscow and Iran are pleading for a relaxation, but Damascus is demanding a withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in northern Syria along the border.
For Caroline Rose, of the Newlines Institute based in Washington, the measured reaction of Damascus's allies could well be “a way of forcing the regime to negotiate from a weaker position, in the absence of any sign of support from the Russians and Iranians,” she said on the social network X.
Turkey, which supports rebels in northern Syria, has called for an end to the regime's “attacks” on the Idlib enclave. “In the coming days, if (the rebels) manage to keep their (territorial) gains, it will be a revealing test of the extent of Turkish commitment,” says Dareen Khalifa.
