“We recommend subscribing to the IPO by capital increase and sale of shares of CMGP GROUP at the proposed price of MAD 200 per share given our valuation showing a target price of MAD 258, i.e. an upside of + 29%. Based on the introductory price, the stock displays a post-money* valuation level of 18.0x in 2025E (vs. 18.1x for the Market) and 15.6x in 2026E according to our forecasts. we read in this note produced by BMCE Capital Global Research on behalf of BMCE Capital Bourse, a member of the investment syndicate.
CMGP Group, resulting from the merger between CMGP and Comptoir Agricole du Souss, positions itself as an undisputed leader in the Moroccan irrigation and agrosupplies market. Thanks to its integrated “one-stop-shop” model, the group responds to crucial issues such as sustainable water management, food security, and energy transition, issues at the heart of national priorities.
An attractive valuation
With its national presence and its recent developments in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Ghana and Mauritania, CMGP aims to establish itself as a leading Pan-African player. At the same time, the group plans to accelerate its external growth, with strategic acquisitions, such as that of 30% of the capital of Agrosem in 2024.
BKGR highlights that CMGP displays attractive multiples, with a post-money Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) estimated at 18.0x in 2025 and 15.6x in 2026, levels aligned with those of the market. In addition, the company plans to distribute dividends from 2025, with an initial yield of 3.1%, or a DPA of 6.3 DH.
Growth catalysts
CMGP Group benefits from several growth drivers: Ambitious public policies such as “Generation Green 2020-2030”; low consumption of agricultural inputs in Morocco, suggesting strong growth potential; extensive sectoral diversification, covering irrigation, renewable energy and infrastructure.
Analysts, however, note risks linked to dependence on the agricultural sector, the volatility of raw materials and political hazards in certain areas of operation in Africa.
With this IPO, CMGP Group aims to raise 300 million dirhams, which will be allocated to the expansion of its industrial capacities and the consolidation of its presence in Africa. The solidity of its fundamentals and its growth prospects make it an opportunity for investors.
BKGR concludes: “Based on the DCF method, we value the company at a theoretical price of MAD 258 against a subscription price of MAD 200, i.e. an upside of +29%. Therefore, we recommend subscribing to this operation.”
