A bitter and expensive draw or golden point? Prediction model sees Club Brugge survive in the Champions League
At Club Brugge yesterday they didn’t quite know how to feel when they had to close the door of Celtic Park. A point against Celtic Glasgow is nice, but there could have been more to it. Will this result be decisive in the final settlement? According to a simulation, Club Brugge would just end up in the coveted top 24 of this League Phase.
Club Brugge deserved a win against Celtic based on the first half, but after a more balanced second half the draw was fair overall.
With 7 out of 15, Club is now 22nd in the standings. The top 8 advance directly to the knockout phase, places 9 to 24 are linked together for play-offs towards the 1/8th finals.
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Due to the brand new format, no one can concretely estimate how many points you need to finish in the top 24. Especially because we have already achieved many surprising results in this League Phase.
Statistical agencies and data specialists do venture into simulations and Football Meets Data concludes that a haul of 10 points offers almost certainty (87 percent) in the top 24.
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And what could the ranking be at the end of the League Phase in 3 match days?
According to the calculations, Club Brugge has a 57 percent chance of reaching the top 24 and is therefore on the right side of the line.
If you link all the data together, Club knows that it must score another three-pointer to win 10 points and thus be certain.
That will have to happen against Sporting (10/12, home), Juventus (21/01, home) and Manchester City (29/01, away).
It will then become clear at the end of January whether the draw in Celtic Park was a victory or a defeat.
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