The Kremlin has rejected any option to “freeze” the conflict, with Russia’s sole objective being the capitulation of Ukraine — ISW. Explosions in Sevastopol: propagandists report an attack on the Belbek airfield. Between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers are estimated to have lost their lives in the war against Russia – The Economist.
The Kremlin has rejected any option to “freeze” the conflict, with Russia’s sole objective being the capitulation of Ukraine — ISW.
New statements by the director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia, Sergei Naryshkin, show that Russia does not envisage any agreement with Ukraine to end the war without additional occupation of its territory.
This is according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than that already occupied by Russia. They refuse any compromise or participation in sincere negotiations with Kyiv, regardless of the mediator involved, ISW analysts explain.
They draw attention to the statement by Sergei Naryshkin, who said on November 26 that Russia was allegedly open to negotiations but “categorically rejects” any scenario of “freezing” the current front line, whether of a “Korean” or other model, as well as the creation of a demilitarized zone. Naryshkin argued that “eliminating” the causes that allegedly pushed Russia to invade Ukraine would be the only way to ensure peace.
These statements illustrate that Russia continues to demand without compromise the total capitulation of Ukraine, underlines the ISW.
Experts recall that the Kremlin has several times demanded that Ukraine give up the territories of four regions partially occupied by Russia, without the latter having taken full control of them. The ISW also recently predicted that the Russian military command is likely considering expanding its offensive toward the southeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, beyond the Kremlin's current claims, to support Russia's goal of controlling the the entire Donetsk region.
Furthermore, although the speed of Russian advances in fall 2024 has increased compared to 2023 and early 2024, recent Western media reports comparing these gains to initial breakthroughs in 2022 exaggerate the scope of these advances, asserts 'ISW. Since November 1, 2024, Russian troops have occupied an additional 574 km² in Ukraine, or on average 22 km² per day, far from the 1,265 km² daily estimated in March 2022.
Additionally, according to the ISW, Reuters' claim that Russian forces control “80 percent of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” is misleading. While 99% of the Luhansk region is occupied, Russia controls only about 66% of the Donetsk region. Since the fall of 2022, Russian troops have occupied almost the entire Luhansk region but have conquered a much smaller area in the Donetsk region.
The ISW estimates that to occupy all of Donetsk, Russian forces would still need to seize more than 8,000 km². Hypothetically, they could achieve this objective in about a year, provided they maintain their current rate of progress, which remains uncertain.
Currently, Russian forces are bypassing Ukrainian fortified positions, but several cities, such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, remain heavily defended. According to the ISW, Russian troops are unlikely to take these towns as quickly as the rural areas near Pokrovsk.
Explosions in Sevastopol: propagandists report an attack on the Belbek airfield.
In the temporarily occupied city of Sevastopol, a series of explosions was heard on the morning of Wednesday, November 27. Russian propagandists speak of “air defense work” against missiles and drones, as well as an attack on Belbek airport. NV is following developments in Sevastopol.
The occupying “authorities” in Crimea and the Russian Defense Ministry have offered divergent versions regarding the alleged “interception” of the strikes on Sevastopol.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that from 07:30 to 09:30 Kyiv time, occupied Crimea was allegedly attacked by “aerial-type drones”. According to the ministry, air defense systems “intercepted and destroyed” 25 Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea and Crimean territory.
At the same time, the pro-Kremlin governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvojaev, claimed that there were actually fewer than 20 drones involved, which he said would explain why no air alerts were triggered in the city, a period raised by residents. Razvozhayev claimed that “all five drones today were shot down over the sea” and also mentioned the alleged “destruction of two missiles” over the sea, although the Russian Defense Ministry did not did not mention missiles in his report.
Explosions were also reported in the Belbek airfield area, according to Krymskiy Veter.
For its part, the Russian propaganda Telegram channel Mash claimed that the Belbek airfield in Sevastopol was attacked this morning. “According to surveillance sources, about 40 drones, Neptune-type low-altitude anti-ship missiles and unidentified ballistics were detected in the direction of the northwest of the peninsula. These are likely to be British Storm Shadow cruise missiles,” reports Mash, adding that “all targets have been shot down” and mentioning the fall of debris from a drone near the town of Orlivka, close to the road from Katcha to Sevastopol.
In the war against Russia, between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives, according to The Economist.
Ukraine could have lost between 60,000 and 100,000 soldiers killed in action during Russia's nearly three-year full-scale invasion, and around 400,000 soldiers could have suffered serious injuries, writes The Economist.
The Economist, referring to data from Western intelligence services, Defense Ministry officials, information from open sources and the UAlosses website, emphasizes that these figures and reports are difficult to verify independently. In addition, they do not always take into account soldiers who are missing or presumed dead.
“However, this data gives a rough idea of the number of deaths. They suggest that to date at least 60,000 to 100,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. An estimated 400,000 others may have been injured to the point of being unable to fight. These figures do not include civilian deaths, for which there is very little data. It is estimated that tens of thousands of civilians were killed,” writes The Economist.
The newspaper also cites data from the UAlosses website, according to which at least 60,435 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since 2022.
“These figures show that more than 0.5% of Ukraine's pre-war population — men of fighting age (18-49) — were killed. The data from UAlosses is not exhaustive, and the ages of all soldiers are not known. The actual share of men killed in the war is higher. The proportion of those who were seriously injured, preventing them from continuing to fight, is even greater. If we assume that there are 6 to 8 serious casualties for every combat death, almost one in 20 men of fighting age have been killed or seriously wounded, preventing them from continuing to fight,” writes The Economist .
According to the publication, Russia lost around 200,000 soldiers killed during the same period.
Journalists point out that in both countries the proportion of combat deaths to total population is higher than that of the United States during the Vietnam and Korean wars combined.
“Their combat losses are rapidly approaching American losses in World War II. Russia's losses in Ukraine since 2022, not including foreigners recruited by it, exceed the losses of all its wars since 1945 combined,” writes The Economist.
