While the budget projects will return to the National Assembly in December, Michel Barnier is more than ever threatened with being overthrown by the opposition.
Are the government's days numbered? While Michel Barnier opened a round of negotiations at the beginning of the week with the leaders of the parliamentary groups to reach compromises with the oppositions on the 2025 budgets, censorship hangs over the government more than ever. And could even intervene as soon as the Social Security finance bill (PLFSS) returns to the National Assembly, on which article 49.3 of the Constitution should be used next week. A hypothesis far from being far-fetched if the National Rally (RN) mixes its voices with those of the left during a rejection text, tabled immediately but voted on a few days later.
If the prime minister and his team are overthrown, what do the French expect next? A large majority would demand the head of the person who caused the absence of a majority in the Lower House, and therefore triggered the dissolution on June 9. 63% are in favor of Emmanuel Macron resigning in the event of the fall of Michel Barnier, reveals an Elabe study for BFMTV this Wednesday evening. A wish widely supported by RN voters (83%) and those of the New Popular Front (76%). Despite the participation of their leaders in the ruling coalition, 48% of LR supporters are of the same opinion. Unsurprisingly, only a minority of the President of the Republic's supporters (27%) would approve of the early end of the mandate.
The “common base” rejects the motion of censure
As for the motion of censure, the French are more divided (52% are for, 48% against). A divide that we find in political affiliations. “Common base” voters reject it: the trend rises to 85% within the central bloc and 78% among the Republicans. Conversely, 75% of NFP supporters validate it, as do 64% of those of the RN. In the scenario of a fall of the government, Emmanuel Macron would be seen as the main person responsible for the crisis by 53% of French people. 19% would blame Michel Barnier's team, 15% the left and 12% the RN.
