According to a new Elabe poll for BFMTV, the French are divided on the idea of a motion of censure being adopted against the government of Michel Barnier. But if such a motion were passed, the majority believe that Emmanuel Macron and his decision to dissolve the National Assembly would be responsible.
While Michel Barnier's government is threatened with censorship, Emmanuel Macron would be judged responsible by the French for a possible fall of the government.
According to a new “Opinion en direct” survey conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and published this Wednesday, November 27, in the event of the resignation of Michel Barnier's government caused by a motion of censure, 63% of French people would be in favor of the resignation of Emmanuel Macron from the post of President of the Republic, which would cause a new presidential election.
This wish is widely shared by the voters of the RN (83%) and those of the left-wing parties which make up the New Popular Front (76%), but also by a part of the Les Républicains voters (48%) and even 27% of those Together for the Republic.
The French divided on the vote for a motion of censure
For several weeks, the left and the far right have been threatening the government with a motion of censure if 49.3 is used on the budgetary texts currently debated in Parliament. This article of the Constitution allows the adoption of a text without a vote, unless there is a motion of censure leading to the fall of the government. However, Michel Barnier's government does not have a majority in the Assembly and the opposition strongly protests against the draft budget presented for 2025.
According to our Elabe poll, the French are divided on the vote for a motion of censure. 52% of those questioned are in favor and 48% are against it. A clear majority of NFP (75%) and RN (64%) voters would support this choice, while Ensemble (85%) and LR (78%) voters are very largely opposed.
If such a motion were adopted, it would be seen by many as caused by Emmanuel Macron. 53% of people questioned by Elabe believe that Emmanuel Macron, in particular through his decision to dissolve the National Assembly, is responsible for the current political situation. 19% point to the government of Michel Barnier which has not yet managed to find a compromise allowing a majority of deputies to approve the budget. 15% point to the opposition presented by the New Popular Front to the budget as responsible and 12% point to the RN for the same reason.
The RN threatens to vote for censorship
Sweeping aside Michel Barnier's warning on Tuesday about “the storm” that a fall of the government would trigger, the National Rally is raising more than ever the threat of censorship, perhaps as early as next week on the Social Security budget, probable subject of a compromise between deputies and senators on Wednesday.
How can Barnier convince the National Rally not to censor him?
“The French are waiting for clear and firm commitments on the abandonment of the 3 billion increases in the price of electricity (flagship provision of the 2025 budget, authorizing the government to increase electricity taxation, Editor’s note), the abandonment of the de-reimbursement of new medicines and the de-indexation of pensions (…) and the Prime Minister is not taking the path”, reacted on X Marine Le Pen the day after the intervention of the head of government on TF1.
The French in favor of a technical government
Without waiting for the final reading on the state budget in mid-December, a motion of censure could be tabled next week in the event of recourse to 49.3 on the Social Security budget. Lacking a majority in the Assembly, the government could trigger this 49.3 on Monday, if deputies and senators reach a compromise on Wednesday in the joint party committee (CMP), where the government coalition has a narrow majority (eight votes against six).
If the RN votes for a motion of censure tabled by the left and brings down the government, the French are rather in favor of the formation of a “technical” government, which would be made up of experts who do not come from a political party (69%). This scenario is more popular than that of a coalition between certain left-wing parties (without La France insoumise) and the presidential camp (44% of French people in favor). The hypothesis of a coalition between certain left-wing parties (without France Insoumise), the presidential camp and Les Républicains also garners 44% favorable opinions.
Sample of 1,003 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over. The representativeness of the sample was ensured according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interviewee after stratification by region and category of agglomeration. Internet survey from November 26 to 27, 2024.
